时 间：2013年3月22日，14:30-16:30
地 点：清华大学公共管理学院321会议室
主讲人：peter padbury, 加拿大政府战略预见中心高级研究主管，监测和预见部主任
主持人：彭宗超，清华大学公共管理学院教授, 中国应急管理研究基地主任
语 言：英文
主 办：清华大学产业发展与环境治理研究中心（cideg）
中国应急管理研究基地(ccmr)
活动简介：
加拿大政府战略预见中心（policy horizons canada）开发了一个基于对话的预见过程，采用现代预见工具以促使知识丰富的参与者加入到对未来可能状况的探索中来。这个过程中的一大特点在于帮助参与者发掘一段时间后的结果,并寻找驱变因素之间不可预料的交互。这个过程验证了规划假设的鲁棒性，并识别新的政策挑战和惊奇。主讲人peter将迅速回顾该预见过程，包括每一步所采用的一些工具，并总结采用这一过程的近期研究之发现。陈述之后会有讨论环节。
主讲人简介：
peter padbury，加拿大政府战略预见中心（policy horizons canada）高级研究主管，监测和预见部主任。该机构是致力于支持政府高级公务人员预测未来挑战而设立的加拿大政府组织。peter负责了一系列战略预见项目，包括metascan，一个加拿大联邦政府跨部门合作的监测项目，目的是识别各种新现象和新趋势。在peter的职业生涯中，他主持了上百个预见项目，帮助联邦政府、ngo、企业和联合国机构建立未来发展愿景、政策和策略。这些项目涉及广泛的主题，如亚洲基本医疗服务的未来和联合国安理会的未来。
peter 曾经旅居哥斯达黎加、印度尼西亚和泰国，并曾在50多个国家工作过。他在休斯顿大学取得了未来研究学的硕士学位（主要研究参与式预见法）。曾担任很多组织的理事会成员，并且是未来学家专业协会的创始人。
time: 14:30-16:30, march 22nd, 2013
location: room 321, school of public policy and management, tsinghua university
speaker: peter padbury, director of scanning and foresight at canadian government foresight center
moderator: peng zongchao, professor of school of public policy and management, tsinghua university, director of ccmr
language: english
organizers: center for industrial development and environmental governance,（cideg）,tsinghua universtiy
center for crisis management research (ccmr)
brief introduction：
policy horizons canada（horizons） has developed a dialogue-based foresight process that uses modern foresight tools to engage knowledgeable participants in exploring alternative plausible futures. a unique feature of the process is it helps participants explore consequences over time and find unexpected interactions among change drivers. the process tests the robustness of planning assumptions and identifies emerging policy challenges and surprises. peter will give a quick overview of the horizons process including some of the tools used at each step as well as summarize the findings of a recent study that used this process. discussion will follow the presentation.
bio of speaker:
peter padbury is the director of scanning and foresight, at policy horizons canada, a canadian government foresight centre which supports the most senior public servants in their efforts to anticipate future challenges. peter manages a number of foresight projects as well as the metascan, a collaborative scanning process that involves scanners across the federal government in identifying emerging issues and clarifying assumptions. over his career, peter has led hundreds of foresight projects that developed vision, policy and strategy with federal government departments, ngos, business and un agencies on a wide range of themes – from the future of primary health care in asia to the future of the un security council. peter has lived in costa rica, indonesia and thailand and has worked in over 50 countries. peter has a master's degree in future studies from the university of houston (with a focus on participatory foresight methods). he has been on the board of directors for a number of organizations and is a founding member of the association of professional futurists.