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volume 114, issue 4, april 2024
1. title: is journalistic truth dead? measuring how informed voters are about political news.
authors: angelucci, charles; prat, andrea.
abstract: to investigate general patterns in news information in the united states, we combine a protocol for identifying major political news stories, 11 monthly surveys with 15,000 participants, and a model of news discernment. when confronted with a true and a fake news story, 47 percent of subjects confidently choose the true story, 3 percent confidently choose the fake story, and the remaining half are uncertain. socioeconomic differences are associated with large variations in the probability of selecting the true news story. partisan congruence between an individual and a news story matters, but its impact is up to an order of magnitude smaller.
2. title: anticipatory anxiety and wishful thinking.
authors: engelmann, jan b.; lebreton, ma�l; salem-garcia, nahuel a.; schwardmann, peter; van der weele, jo�l j.
abstract: across five experiments (n = 1,714), we test whether people engage in wishful thinking to alleviate anxiety about adverse future outcomes. participants perform pattern recognition tasks in which some patterns may result in an electric shock or a monetary loss. diagnostic of wishful thinking, participants are less likely to correctly identify patterns that are associated with a shock or loss. wishful thinking is more pronounced under more ambiguous signals and only reduced by higher accuracy incentives when participants' cognitive effort reduces ambiguity. wishful thinking disappears in the domain of monetary gains, indicating that negative emotions are important drivers of the phenomenon.
3. title: motivated errors.
authors: exley, christine l.; kessler, judd b.
abstract: myriad environments allow for the possibility of confusion. agents may appeal to such confusion--or the possibility of making an honest mistake--to justify their behavior. in three sets of experiments involving thousands of subjects, we document evidence of such motivated errors. we document this evidence in a simple environment in which the scope for errors is small and in more complex environments in which subjects display correlation neglect and an anchoring bias.
4. title: when tariffs disrupt global supply chains.
authors: grossman, gene m.; helpman, elhanan; redding, stephen j.
abstract: we study unanticipated tariffs in a setting with firm-to-firm supply relationships. firms conduct costly searches and negotiate with potential suppliers that pass a reservation level of match productivity. global supply chains form in anticipation of free trade. then, the home government surprises with an input tariff. this can lead to renegotiation with initial suppliers or search for replacements. calibrating the model's parameters to match initial import shares and the estimated responses to the us tariffs imposed on china, we find an overall welfare loss of 0.12 percent of gdp, with substantial contributions from changes in input sourcing and search costs.
5. title: local productivity spillovers.
authors: baum-snow, nathaniel; gendron-carrier, nicolas; pavan, ronni.
abstract: using canadian administrative data, this paper presents evidence of revenue and productivity spillovers across firms at fine spatial scales. accounting for the endogenous sorting of firms across space, we estimate an average elasticity of firm revenue and productivity with respect to the average quality of other firms within 75 meters of 0.024. we find scant evidence that the average firm benefits from being surrounded by a greater amount of economic activity at this spatial scale. sorting of higher-quality firms into more productive locations and higher average and aggregate quality peer groups is salient in the data.
6. title: redesigning the us army's branching process: a case study in minimalist market design.
authors: greenberg, kyle; pathak, parag a.; s�nmez, tayfun.
abstract: we present a proof-of-concept for minimalist market design (s�nmez 2023) as an effective methodology to enhance an institution based on stakeholders' desiderata with minimal interference. four objectives--respecting merit, increasing retention, aligning talent, and enhancing trust--guided reforms to the us army's centralized branching process of cadets to military specialties since 2006. usma's mechanism for the class of 2020 exacerbated challenges in implementing these objectives. formulating the army's desiderata as rigorous axioms, we analyze their implications. under our minimalist approach to institution redesign, the army's objectives uniquely identify a branching mechanism. our design is now adopted at usma and rotc.
7. title: the opportunity cost of debt aversion.
authors: mart�nez-marquina, alejandro; shi, mike.
abstract: we provide evidence of the existence of debt aversion and its negative implications for financial decisions. in a new experimental design where subjects are assigned debt randomly, we quantify the opportunity cost of subjects' debt-biased decisions. one-third of our participants neglect high returns and focus instead on debt repayments. in addition, borrowing to invest is 50 percent less likely when it leads to indebtedness. on average, participants perceive $1 less in debt as equivalent to $1.03 in savings. hence, a debt-averse agent will undertake a 10 percent guaranteed investment only if the cost of borrowing does not exceed 6.80 percent.
8. title: nurturing childhood curiosity to enhance learning: evidence from a randomized pedagogical intervention.
authors: alan, sule; mumcu, ipek.
abstract: we evaluate a pedagogical intervention aimed at improving learning in elementary school children by fostering their curiosity. we test the effectiveness of the pedagogy using achievement scores and a novel measure of curiosity. the latter involves creating a sense of information deprivation and quantifying the urge to acquire information and retention ability. the intervention increases curiosity, knowledge retention, and science test scores, with the effects persisting into middle school years. it also leads to more information sharing and peer learning in the classroom. the evidence can help design better pedagogical tools to increase pupil engagement and the quality of learning.
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