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assessment to investigate possible root cause(s) of foodborne illness outbreaks related to shiga toxin-producing escherichia coli o157:h7 (stec o157) infections in leafy greens in the united states. to this end, we developed the fda leafy green quantitative risk assessment epidemic curve prediction model (fda-lg qra-ec) that simulated the lettuce supply chain. the model was used to predict the number of reported illnesses and the epidemic curve associated with lettuce contaminated with stec o157 for a wide range of scenarios representing various contamination conditions and facility processing/sanitation practices. model predictions were generated for fresh-cut and whole lettuce, quantifying the differing impacts of facility processing and home preparation on predicted illnesses. our model revealed that the timespan (i.e., number of days with at least one reported illness) and the peak (i.e., day with the most predicted number of reported illnesses) of the epidemic curve of a stec o157-lettuce outbreak were not strongly influenced by facility processing/sanitation practices and were indications of contamination pattern among incoming lettuce batches received by the facility or distribution center. through comparisons with observed number of illnesses from recent stec o157-lettuce outbreaks, the model identified contamination conditions on incoming lettuce heads that could result in an outbreak of similar size, which can be used to narrow down potential root cause hypotheses. 2. title: assessing the effect on the public health risk of current and alternative border control of salmonella typhimurium and enteritidis in imported frozen poultry meat in jordan authors: tariq hantash, ofosuhene o. apenteng, maarten nauta, h�kan vigre abstract: the jfda applies border control for salmonella typhimurium and salmonella enteritidis in frozen poultry products. a qmra model was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of this system in controlling the risk for consumers. the model consists of three modules; consumer phase, risk estimation, and risk reduction. the model inputs were the occurrence of salmonella in different types of imported poultry products, the lod of the rapid�salmonella, the number of tested samples of each batch, and the criteria for rejection. the model outputs were public health impact as the minimum relative residual risk (mrrr) given the batches� refusal and the percentage of batches that are not-compliant with the microbiological criteria (bnmc) of rejection. to estimate the overall mrrr of the border control, the estimated country and product-specific mrrr were summarized and weighted by the total imports of each product from each country. the current border control based on one sample per batch gives an overall mrrr value of 27%. the alternative scenarios based on three and five samples per batch are 12% and 8%, respectively. overall, the higher the prevalence and/or concentration of salmonella in imported products, the more the likelihood that batches will be rejected. for products with up-to-date data of occurrence, the estimated bnmc was similar to the observed proportion of rejected batches. the lack of data on the salmonella concentrations in poultry products from different countries is the major source of the uncertainties in the model. it reduces our opportunities to obtain valid estimates of the absolute risk. 3. title: cross-country risk quantification of extreme wildfires in mediterranean europe authors: sarah meier, eric strobl, robert j. r. elliott, nicholas kettridge abstract: we estimate the country-level risk of extreme wildfires defined by burned area (ba) for mediterranean europe and carry out a cross-country comparison. to this end, we avail of the european forest fire information system (effis) geospatial data from 2006 to 2019 to perform an extreme value analysis. more specifically, we apply a point process characterization of wildfire extremes using maximum likelihood estimation. by modeling covariates, we also evaluate potential trends and correlations with commonly known factors that drive or affect wildfire occurrence, such as the fire weather index as a proxy for meteorological conditions, population density, land cover type, and seasonality. we find that the highest risk of extreme wildfires is in portugal (pt), followed by greece (gr), spain (es), and italy (it) with a 10-year ba return level of 50'338 ha, 33'242 ha, 25'165 ha, and 8'966 ha, respectively. coupling our results with existing estimates of the monetary impact of large wildfires suggests expected losses of 162�439 million � (pt), 81 219 million � (es), 41 290 million � (gr), and 18 78 million � (it) for such 10-year return period events. 4. title: prioritized reconstruction of healthcare facilities after earthquakes based on recovery of emergency services authors: irene alisjahbana, luis ceferino, anne kiremidjian abstract: earthquakes can disrupt the healthcare system heavily, leading to long wait times and many untreated patients for years after the event. emergency services, in particular, must return to preearthquake functionality as soon as possible such that patients, especially critically injured ones, can be treated promptly. however, reconstruction and restoration of emergency services can take years. due to limited reconstruction resources, decision-makers cannot reconstruct all hospitals simultaneously. they are typically forced to prioritize the reconstruction order, and this process is often poorly planned. this article models emergency services as an m/m/s queuing system that accounts for prioritized treatment of critical patients and formulates a greedy algorithm to plan for an effective healthcare system reconstruction. the algorithm finds the reconstruction ordering of hospital buildings such that emergency patients have the shortest time to receiving medical care possible. we show our greedy algorithm's good performance for small problem instances, with average deviations from the optimal solution below 16%. further, we apply our methodology to a case study of lima, peru, under a hypothetical m8.0 earthquake. the application demonstrates that compared to typically implemented policies, a policy guided by our formulation results in shorter time to treatment and reduces the number of untreated patients over the course of the reconstruction period by more than a factor of 3 in a worst-case scenario with 70% hospital capacity disruption. finally, we demonstrate that our formulation can be integrated into risk analysis through monte carlo simulations to inform decision-makers of reconstruction plans after future earthquakes. 5. title: assessment of ductile dike behavior as a novel flood risk reduction measure authors: f. den heijer, m. kok abstract: dikes are an effective flood risk reduction measure in deltaic areas. present risk analyses consist often of decoupled calculations of probabilities of dike failure and calculation of consequences of flooding given dike failure. however, the flood defense design determines not only the probability of failure, but influences the consequences of flooding as well. especially when the dike has a ductile failure and breach growth behavior, due to a structural robust design, the consequences of flooding reduce. in this article, we present a novel assessment of risks and investments, valuing structural robustness of a construction type, represented by its ductile behavior during high loads. therefore, the consecutive occurrence of initial dike failure mechanisms, failure path development, breach growth, and consequences is modeled integral and time-dependent. the investments consist of the costs to reinforce or reconstruct the flood defense to behave relatively ductile. this integral assessment enables to compare flood impacts of different construction types and different dimensions of designs. we applied it on a case in a riverine area in the netherlands. the results show that the total societal costs and the individual risks on victims are very dependent on the construction type. the risk profile of a polder protected by a brittle or a ductile dike differs significantly. the brittle sand dike in the case requires larger dimensions than the more ductile dike with a clay core. 6. title: vulnerability assessment of strait/canals in maritime transportation using fuzzy evidential reasoning approach authors: meizhi jiang, benmei wang, yingjun hao, shijun chen, jing lu abstract: the safety and security of straits and canals have been playing an important role in maritime transportation. the disruption of a strait or canal will lead to increased transportation costs and world trade problems. therefore, an advanced approach incorporating fuzzy logic and an evidential reasoning (er) algorithm is developed to conduct the vulnerability assessment of straits or canals in this paper. a hierarchical structure is first developed taking into account both qualitative and quantitative factors. the fuzzy rule-based transformation technique is applied to convert quantitative factors into qualitative ones, which enables the application of a fuzzy er method to synthesize all the information from the bottom to the top along the developed hierarchical structure. the software of intelligent decision system (ids) is used to facilitate the process of vulnerability assessment. the developed framework then is validated and demonstrated in a case study for vulnerability prioritization which can be used as a reference to ensure the safety and security of straits and canals for decision-makers. 7. title: stigma as a multispatial-scale process: revisiting the worst us superfund sites authors: michael r. greenberg abstract: areas immediately adjacent to 16 of the first us national priority (npl) hazardous waste sites that also had pre-superfund emergency actions were examined to measure local stigma. four decades after their npl designation, i found marked variation in these areas� social, public health and environmental attributes. about one-third of these small areas fit the stereotype of stressed areas with environmental injustice challenges. yet, another one-third of these sites have better measurable outcomes than a combination of their host states and counties. for example, they have elevated levels of broadband access and their local jurisdictions are classified as safe and attractive to families. i conclude that long-term stigma around a superfund site was limited by us epa actions, as well as by progressive state and local governments, and community groups, in other words, contributions from parties at multiple geographical scales. 8. title: island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sunlight-reducing catastrophes authors: matt boyd, nick wilson abstract: some island nations in the southern hemisphere might survive a severe sun-reducing catastrophe such as nuclear winter and be well placed to help reboot-collapsed human civilization. such islands must be resilient to the cascading effects abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (asrs) would impose beyond the impacts on agricultural systems. we aimed to identify island nations whose societies are most likely to survive nuclear winter or other asrs. we also aimed to conduct a case study of one island nation to consider how it might enhance its resilience and therefore its chance of aiding a global reboot of complex technological society. we performed a threshold analysis on food self-sufficiency under severe nuclear winter conditions to identify islands. we then profiled each island across global macroindices representing resilience factors reported in the literature. we undertook a case study of the island nation of new zealand. the island nations of australia, new zealand, iceland, the solomon islands, and vanuatu appear most resilient to asrs. however, our case-study island nation of new zealand is threatened in scenarios of no/low trade, has precarious aspects of its energy supply, and shortcomings in manufacturing of essential components. therefore, inadequate preparations and critical failures in these systems could see rapid societal breakdown. despite some islands� favorable baseline conditions and apparent food security even in a severe asrs, cascading impacts through other socioecological systems threaten complex functioning. we identified specific resilience measures, many with cobenefits, which may protect island nodes of sustained complexity in asrs. 9. title: food safety in the aging population: qualitative findings on what to communicate and how authors: natalie berger, severine koch, katrin jungnickel, gaby-fleur b�l abstract: the present study investigated older adults� risk perception, beliefs, and self-perception in the field of kitchen hygiene and food safety. a qualitative study with semi-structured focus groups was conducted. a total of 37 older adults (60�80 years of age) from germany participated in four focus groups that were stratified by gender. focus groups covered older adults� food-handling practices, their perceptions of vulnerability, and their informational needs in the field of food safety. a thematic analysis approach was adopted. the coding categories and subcategories were developed inductively by the researchers based on the data. the coded data were then used to identify overarching themes and subthemes. main results showed that older adults had confidence in their knowledge and skills with regard to food safety, perceived their post-war generation overall to be resistant and other so-called at-risk groups to be more vulnerable. moreover, they expressed low informational needs in the area of food safety. the results suggest that age-specific aspects play a role in older adults� risk perception and highlight the need to develop age-specific risk communication strategies that take into account older adults� beliefs, knowledge, and informational needs. 10. title: biospheric values as predictor of climate change risk perception: a multinational investigation authors: christian martin abstract: climate change is one of the big challenges of our time. a better understanding of how individuals form their evaluation of the risk related to climate change seems to be key to win broad support for climate change mitigation efforts. extant research indicates that biospheric values (bv) are an important antecedent of individuals� perception of the risk and consequences related to climate change. however, risk perception scholars have only recently started to study how bv relate to individuals� climate change risk perception (ccrp) and much is still to be learned about this relationship. the present study contributes to this growing literature by studying the bv�ccrp relationship in a multinational context. the results suggest that the bv � ccrp relationship varies in strength between different countries. these differences can be explained in part by societies� cultural leanings (i.e., individualism vs. collectivism) and societies� wealth. the present research adds to our understanding of why individuals in different countries perceive climate change related risk differently and how this perception is shaped differently by biospheric values in different countries. in this way, the findings help to build a more nuanced theory of how ccrp are formed. the presented results also have implications for policymakers and ngos who wish to increase individuals� engagement with climate change and its consequences in different populations. in particular, the findings suggests that it might be necessary to use different strategies in different societies to achieve a greater awareness of climate change related risks. 11. title: sensation seeking predicts risky driving behavior: the mediating role of difficulties in emotion regulation authors: jun li, ying zhou, yan ge, weina qu abstract: the purpose of this study was to explore the mediating effect of difficulties in emotion regulation on the relationship between sensation seeking and driving behavior based on the dual-process model of aberrant driving behavior. a sample of 299 drivers in china completed the difficulties in emotion regulation scale, the driver behavior questionnaire, and the sensation seeking scale v (sss). the relationships among sensation seeking, difficulties in emotion regulation, and driving behavior were investigated using pathway analysis. the results showed that (1) disinhibition and boredom susceptibility are positively and significantly related to difficulties in emotion regulation and risky driving behaviors; (2) difficulties in emotion regulation are positively and significantly associated with risky driving behaviors; (3) difficulties in emotion regulation mediate the effect of sensation seeking on driving behaviors, supporting the dual-process model of driving behavior; and (4) professional drivers score higher in terms of difficulties in emotion regulation and risky driving behaviors than nonprofessional drivers. the findings of this study could provide valuable insights into the selection of suitable drivers and the development of certain programs that benefit road safety. 12. title: geographic location or experience: using prism to understand how people seek flood risk information authors: keri k. stephens, kendall p. tich, nancy h. carlson, cassidy s. doucet abstract: flooding is increasing worldwide, and with climate change, people need help understanding these changing conditions and that their flood risk may also change. this study extends the planned risk information seeking model (prism) into the flood risk domain and examines the antecedents that explain flood risk information seeking behavior. using a survey reflective of the population in the state of texas (n = 1079), this study includes an operationalization of risk perception specific to the complexity of floods and explores two key moderators in the prism model. findings suggest that using prism to elaborate flood risk information seeking behaviors explains 48% of the variance in information seeking intent and 37% of the variance in affective risk perception. using multigroup modeling, the findings also reveal that simply living in an area at high risk for floods does not significantly impact any relationships in the model. however, having experience with flooding increases the strength of risk perception paths�in particular, perceived probability of flood risk�and better explains flood risk information seeking. suggestions for how to use communication to influence risk perceptions and information seeking, as well as future directions for research, are also discussed. 13. title: ethical leadership supports safety voice by increasing risk perception and reducing ethical ambiguity: evidence from the covid-19 pandemic authors: m. selim cakir, jamie k. wardman, alexander trautrims abstract: misconduct by business and political leaders during the pandemic is feared to have impacted people's adherence to protective measures that would help to safeguard against the spread of covid-19. addressing this concern, this article theorizes and tests a model linking ethical leadership with workplace risk communication�a practice referred to as �safety voice� in the research literature. our study, conducted with 511 employees from uk companies, revealed that ethical leadership is positively associated with greater intention to engage in safety voice regarding covid-19. we also find that this association is mediated by relations with the perceived health risk of covid-19 and ambiguity about ethical decision making in the workplace. these findings therefore  " .0124=�������ʸʸʸ���~qcuhc=uhicy5�ojqj^jhj�5�ojqj^jo(h�5�h�5�5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h@ t5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#h�5�h�5�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj 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