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��ࡱ�>�� qs����p��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� �r��hbjbj�v�v2j�<�<;d ������������������8jd�$�o4������� dofofofofofofo�p��s:fo9���fo����4o$$$.����do$do$$$������c� l�@^$0o�o0�o$�s�f�s$$�/�s��l@$fofo�@�o���������������������������������������������������������������������s� �: the american economic review volume 101, issue 5, june 2011 1. title: environmental accounting for pollution in the united states economy. authors: muller, nicholas z; mendelsohn, robert; nordhaus, william. abstract: this study presents a framework to include environmental externalities into a system of national accounts. the paper estimates the air pollution damages for each industry in the united states. an integrated-assessment model quantifies the marginal damages of air pollution emissions for the us which are multiplied times the quantity of emissions by industry to compute gross damages. solid waste combustion, sewage treatment, stone quarrying, marinas, and oil and coal-fired power plants have air pollution damages larger than their value added. the largest industrial contributor to external costs is coal-fired electric generation, whose damages range from 0.8 to 5.6 times value added. 2. title: from financial crash to debt crisis. authors: reinhart, carmen m; rogoff, kenneth s. abstract: newly developed historical time series on public debt, along with data on external debts, allow a deeper analysis of the debt cycles underlying serial debt and banking crises. we test three related hypotheses at both 'world' aggregate levels and on an individual country basis. first, external debt surges are an antecedent to banking crises. second, banking crises (domestic and those in financial centers) often precede or accompany sovereign debt crises; we find they help predict them. third, public borrowing surges ahead of external sovereign default, as governments have 'hidden domestic debts' that exceed the better documented levels of external debt. 3. title: an experimental component index for the cpi: from annual computer data to monthly data on other goods. authors: erickson, tim; pakes, ariel. abstract: the cpi component indices are obtained from comparing price quotes at a given store in different periods. if we omit comparisons from goods in the store in the initial, but not in the comparison, period we generate a selection bias: goods that exit are disproportionately obsolete goods that have falling prices. building on pakes (2003), we explain why standard hedonic predictions for second-period prices of exiting goods do not account for this bias. new hedonic methods are derived, shown to have desirable properties, and are applied to three cpi samples where they generate significant selection corrections. 4. title: peer effects, teacher incentives, and the impact of tracking: evidence from a randomized evaluation in kenya. authors: duflo, esther; dupas, pascaline; kremer, michael. abstract: to the extent that students benefit from high-achieving peers, tracking will help strong students and hurt weak ones. however, all students may benefit if tracking allows teachers to better tailor their instruction level. lower-achieving pupils are particularly likely to benefit from tracking when teachers have incentives to teach to the top of the distribution. we propose a simple model nesting these effects and test its implications in a randomized tracking experiment conducted with 121 primary schools in kenya. while the direct effect of high-achieving peers is positive, tracking benefited lower-achieving pupils indirectly by allowing teachers to teach to their level. 5. title: the impact of regulations on the supply and quality of care in child care markets. authors: hotz, v. joseph; xiao, mo. abstract: we examine the impact of state child care regulations on the supply and quality of care in child care markets. we exploit panel data on both individual establishments and local markets to control for state, time, and, where possible, establishment-specific fixed effects to mitigate the potential bias due to policy endogeneity. we find that the imposition of regulations reduces the number of center-based child care establishments, especially in lower income markets. however, such regulations increase the quality of services provided, especially in higher income areas. thus, there are winners and losers from the regulation of child care services. 6. title: competition among sellers in securities auctions. authors: gorbenko, alexander s; malenko, andrey. abstract: we study simultaneous security-bid second-price auctions with competition among sellers for potential bidders. the sellers compete by designing ordered sets of securities that the bidders can offer as payment for the assets. upon observing auction designs, potential bidders decide which auctions to enter. we characterize all symmetric equilibria and show that there always exist equilibria in which auctions are in standard securities or their combinations. in large markets the unique equilibrium is auctions in pure cash. we extend the model for competition in reserve prices and show that binding reserve prices never constitute equilibrium as long as equilibrium security designs are not call options. 7. title: unhealthy insurance markets: search frictions and the cost and quality of health insurance. authors: cebul, randall d; rebitzer, james b; taylor, lowell j; votruba, mark e. abstract: we analyze the effect of search frictions in the market for commercial health insurance. frictions increase insurance premiums (enough to transfer 13.2 percent of consumer surplus from fully insured employer groups to insurers-approximately $34.4 billion in 1997); and increase insurance turnover (by 64 percent for the average policy). this rent transfer harms consumers and-when combined with heightened turnover-reduces incentives to invest in future health. we also find that a publicly financed insurance option can improve the efficiency of private insurance markets by reducing search friction induced distortions in pricing and marketing efforts. 8. title: segregation and the quality of government in a cross section of countries. authors: alesina, alberto; zhuravskaya, ekaterina. abstract: we provide a new compilation of data on ethnic, linguistic, and religious composition at the subnational level for a large number of countries. using these data, we measure segregation of groups within the country. to overcome the endogeneity problem that arises because of mobility and endogenous internal borders, we construct an instrument for segregation. we find that more ethnically and linguistically segregated countries, i.e., those where groups live more spatially separately, have a lower quality of government; there is no relationship between religious segregation and governance. trust is an important channel of influence; it is lower in more segregated countries. 9. title: new york city cab drivers' labor supply revisited: reference-dependent preferences with rational-expectations targets for hours and income. authors: crawford, vincent p; meng, juanjuan. abstract: this paper proposes a model of cab drivers' labor supply, building on henry s. farber's (2005, 2008) empirical analyses and botond kqqszegi and matthew rabin's (2006; henceforth 'kr') theory of reference-dependent preferences. following kr, our model has targets for hours as well as income, determined by proxied rational expectations. our model, estimated with farber's data, reconciles his finding that stopping probabilities are significantly related to hours but not income with colin camerer et al.'s (1997) negative 'wage' elasticity of hours; and avoids farber's criticism that estimates of drivers' income targets are too unstable to yield a useful model of labor supply. 10. title: climbing atop the shoulders of giants: the impact of institutions on cumulative research. authors: furman, jeffrey l; stern, scott. abstract: while cumulative knowledge production is central to growth, little empirical research investigates how institutions shape whether existing knowledge can be exploited to create new knowledge. this paper assesses the impact of a specific institution, a biological resource center, whose objective is to certify and disseminate knowledge. we disentangle the marginal impact of this institution on cumulative research from the impact of selection, in which the most important discoveries are endogenously linked to research-enhancing institutions. exploiting exogenous shifts of biomaterials across institutional settings and employing a difference-in-differences approach, we find that effective institutions amplify the cumulative impact of individual scientific discoveries. 11. title: finance and development: a tale of two sectors. authors: buera, francisco j; kaboski, joseph p; shin, yongseok. abstract: we develop a quantitative framework to explain the relationship between aggregate/sector-level total factor productivity (tfp) and financial development across countries. financial frictions distort the allocation of capital and entrepreneurial talent across production units, adversely affecting measured productivity. in our model, sectors with larger scales of operation (e.g., manufacturing) have more financing needs, and are hence disproportionately vulnerable to financial frictions. our quantitative analysis shows that financial frictions account for a substantial part of the observed cross-country differences in output per worker, aggregate tfp, sector-level relative productivity, and capital-to-output ratios. 12. title: dynamics and stagnation in the malthusian epoch. authors: ashraf, quamrul; galor, oded. abstract: this paper examines the central hypothesis of the influential malthusian theory, according to which improvements in the technological environment during the preindustrial era had generated only temporary gains in income per capita, eventually leading to a larger, but not significantly richer, population. exploiting exogenous sources of cross-country variations in land productivity and the level of technological advancement, the analysis demonstrates that, in accordance with the theory, technological superiority and higher land productivity had significant positive effects on population density but insignificant effects on the standard of living, during the time period 1-1500 ce. 13. title: bargaining in stationary networks. authors: manea, mihai. abstract: we study an infinite horizon game in which pairs of players connected in a network are randomly matched to bargain. players who reach agreement are replaced by new players at the same positions in the network. we show that all equilibria are payoff equivalent. the payoffs and the set of agreement links converge as players become patient. several new concepts-mutually estranged sets, partners, and shortage ratios-provide insights into the relative strengths of the positions in the network. we develop a procedure to determine the limit equilibrium payoffs for all players. characterizations of equitable and nondiscriminatory networks are also obtained. 14. title: state misallocation and housing prices: theory and evidence from china. authors: wang, shing-yi. abstract: this paper examines the equilibrium price effects of the privatization of housing assets that were previously owned and allocated by the state. i develop a theoretical framework that shows that privatization can have ambiguous effects on prices in the private market, and that the degree of misallocation of the assets prior to privatization determines the subsequent price effects. i test the predictions of the model using a large-scale housing reform in china. the results suggest that the removal of price distortions allowed households to increase their consumption of housing and led to an increase in equilibrium housing prices. 15. title: forced sales and house prices. authors: campbell, john y; giglio, stefano; pathak, parag. abstract: this paper uses data on all house transactions in massachusetts over the last 20 years to show that houses sold after foreclosure, or close in time to the death or bankruptcy of a seller, are sold at lower prices than other houses. foreclosure discounts are on average at 27 percent of the value of a house. moreover, foreclosures that take place within small local geographies of a house lower the price at which it is sold. our preferred estimate is that a foreclosure at a distance of 0.05 miles lowers the price of a house by about 1 percent. 16. title: house prices, home equity-based borrowing, and the us household leverage crisis. authors: mian, atif; sufi, amir. abstract: borrowing against the increase in home equity by existing homeowners was responsible for a significant fraction of the rise in us household leverage from 2002 to 2006 and the increase in defaults from 2006 to 2008. instrumental variables estimation shows that homeowners extracted 25 cents for every dollar increase in home equity. home equity-based borrowing was stronger for younger households and households with low credit scores. the evidence suggests that borrowed funds were used for real outlays. home equity-based borrowing added $1.25 trillion in household debt from 2002 to 2008, and accounts for at least 39 percent of new defaults from 2006 to 2008. 17. title: panic on the streets of london: police, crime, and the july 2005 terror attacks. authors: draca, mirko; machin, stephen; witt, robert. abstract: in this paper we study the causal impact of police on crime, looking at what happened to crime and police before and after the terror attacks that hit central london in july 2005. the attacks resulted in a large redeployment of police officers to central london as compared to outer london. during this time, crime fell significantly in central relative to outer london. the instrumental variable approach we use uncovers an elasticity of crime with respect to police of approximately -0.3 to -0.4, so that a 10 percent increase in police activity reduces crime by around 3 to 4 percent. 18. title: barriers to investment in polarized societies. authors: azzimonti, marina. abstract: i present a tractable dynamic model of political economy where disagreements about the composition of public spending result in implementation of short-sighted policies. excessive taxation reduces the return to physical capital and hence investment rates, which slows down growth along the transition. in the long run, output, consumption and welfare are inefficiently low. the larger is the degree of polarization, the greater is the inefficiency. political stability mitigates the effects of polarization by making the incumbent internalize the dynamic inefficiencies introduced by the choice of growth-retarding policies. 19. title: the area and population of cities: new insights from a different perspective on cities. authors: rozenfeld, hern�n d; rybski, diego; gabaix, xavier; makse, hern�n a. abstract: the distribution of city populations has attracted much attention, in part because it constrains models of local growth. however, there is no consensus on the distribution below the very upper tail, because available data need to rely on 'legal' rather than 'economic' definitions for medium and small cities. to remedy this difficulty, we construct cities 'from the bottom up' by clustering populated areas obtained from high-resolution data. we find that zipf 's law for population holds for cities as small as 5,000 inhabitants in great britain and 12,000 inhabitants in the us. we also find a zipf 's law for areas. 20. title: the effects of lottery prizes on winners and their neighbors: evidence from the dutch postcode lottery. authors: kuhn, peter; kooreman, peter; soetevent, adriaan; kapteyn, arie. abstract: each week, the dutch postcode lottery (pcl) randomly selects a postal code, and distributes cash and a new bmw to lottery participants in that code. we study the effects of these shocks on lottery winners and their neighbors. consistent with the life-cycle hypothesis, the effects on winners' consumption are largely confined to cars and other durables. consistent with the theory of in-kind transfers, the vast majority of bmw winners liquidate their bmws. we do, however, detect substantial social effects of lottery winnings: pcl nonparticipants who live next door to winners have significantly higher levels of car consumption than other nonparticipants. 21. title: did household consumption become more volatile? authors: gorbachev, olga. abstract: i show that after accounting for predictable variation arising from movements in real interest rates, preferences and income shocks, liquidity constraints and measurement errors, volatility of household consumption in the us increased by 25 percent between 1970 and 2004. the increase was lower than that of volatility of family income. nonwhite and those with less than 13 years of education, for whom there was no differential increase in income volatility, experienced a significantly larger increase in volatility of household consumption. substantial differences in wealth and access to credit markets point to the main reason for this divide. 22. title: strotz meets allais: diminishing impatience and the certainty effect: comment. authors: saito, kota. abstract: halevy (2008) states the equivalence between diminishing impatience (i.e., quasi-hyperbolic discounting) and the common ratio effect. the present paper shows that one way of the equivalence is false and shows the correct and general relationships:/0<=>?h������ � 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