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��ࡱ�>�� ac����`��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������u �r�)9bjbj�n�n2:��a��a �������""������������8�<5�toliiiii}}}�n�n�n�n�n�n�n$�p�vs<�n9�}}}}}�n��ii4oqqq}��i�i�nq}�nqqqi����9”������gq�n$o0toq�sw:�sqq1�s�gk4}}q}}}}}�n�n��}}}to}}}}���������������������������������������������������������������������s}}}}}}}}}"q s: journal of political economy volume 132, issue 5, may 2024 1. title: financial innovation in the twenty-first century: evidence from us patents. authors: lerner, josh; seru, amit; short, nicholas; sun, yuan. abstract: we explore the evolution of financial innovation using us finance patents. patented financial innovations are substantial and increasingly economically important. their subject matter has changed, consistent with the industry's shift toward household investors and borrowers. information technology (it) and other nonfinancial firms drove the surge in financial patenting. the location of innovation shifted, with banks moving activity away from states with tight financial regulation and high-tech regions attracting innovation by payments, it, and nonfinancial firms. analyses of returns suggest that the social value of these innovations is higher than their private value. we present a simple model to explain these trends. 2. title: belief overreaction and stock market puzzles. authors: bordalo, pedro; gennaioli, nicola; porta, rafael la; shleifer, andrei. abstract: we construct an index of long-term expected earnings growth for s&p 500 firms and show that it has remarkable power to jointly predict future errors in expectations and stock returns, in both the aggregate market and the cross section. the evidence supports a mechanism whereby good news causes investors to become too optimistic about long-term earnings growth. this leads to inflated stock prices and, as beliefs are systematically disappointed, subsequent low returns in the aggregate market. overreaction of long-term expectations helps resolve major asset-pricing puzzles without time-series or cross-sectional variation in required returns. 3. title: on the joint evolution of culture and political institutions: elites and civil society. authors: bisin, alberto; verdier, thierry. abstract: we provide an abstract model of the interaction between culture and political institutions. the model is designed to study the political economy of elites and civil society on the determination of long-run socioeconomic activity. we characterize conditions such that the cultural traits of elites and civil society and the institutions determining their relative political power complement (substitute) each other, giving rise to a multiplier effect that amplifies (dampens) their combined ability to spur socioeconomic activity. we show how the joint dynamics may display hysteresis and oscillations, depending on the form of the interaction between elites and civil society. 4. title: augmenting state capacity for child development: experimental evidence from india. authors: ganimian, alejandro j.; muralidharan, karthik; walters, christopher r. abstract: we use a large-scale randomized experiment to study the impact of augmenting staffing in the world's largest public early-childhood program: india's integrated child development services. adding a worker doubled net preschool instructional time and led to increases of 0.28� and 0.46� in math and language test scores after 18 months for children who remained enrolled in the program and 0.13� and 0.10� for all children enrolled at baseline. rates of stunting and severe malnutrition were also lower in the treatment group for children who remained enrolled. a cost-benefit analysis suggests that the benefits of augmenting staffing significantly exceed its costs. these effects are likely to replicate even at larger scales of program implementation. 5. title: competition and information leakage. authors: baldauf, markus; mollner, joshua. abstract: when seeking to trade in over-the-counter markets, institutional investors typically restrict both the number of potential counterparties they contact and the information they disclose (e.g., by requesting two-sided rather than one-sided quotes). we rationalize these important facts in a model featuring endogenous front-running. although an additional contact intensifies competition and aids in finding a natural counterparty, it also intensifies information leakage�which can be costly if it helps a losing dealer to front-run. we also address information design: the client optimally provides no information about her trading direction when requesting quotes. we conclude with implications for market design and regulation. 6. title: mr. keynes meets the classics: government spending and the real exchange rate. authors: born, benjamin; d'ascanio, francesco; m�ller, gernot j.; pfeifer, johannes. abstract: in economies with fixed exchange rates, the adjustment to government-spending shocks is asymmetric. expansionary shocks are absorbed by the real exchange rate, contractionary shocks by output. this result emerges in a small open-economy model with downward nominal wage rigidity and is supported by new empirical evidence based on panel data from different exchange-rate regimes. the exchange-rate regime, economic slack, inflation, and how spending is financed all matter for the fiscal transmission mechanism in the way predicted by the model. estimates that fail to distinguish between the effects of positive and negative shocks are subject to a "depreciation bias." 7. title: consumer search, steering, and choice overload. authors: nocke, volker; rey, patrick. abstract: we develop a model of within-firm sequential, directed search and study a firm's ability and incentive to steer consumers. we find that the firm often benefits from adopting a noisy positioning strategy, which limits the information available to consumers. this induces consumers to keep searching but discourages some of them from visiting the firm. this occurs even though the firm and the consumers have in common an interest in maximizing the probability of trade. because of such noisy positioning, an increase in the size of the product line further discourages consumers from visiting the firm�consistent with choice overload. 8. title: persuasion for the long run. authors: best, james; quigley, daniel. abstract: we examine persuasion when the sole source of credibility today is a desire to maintain a public record for accuracy. a long-run sender plays a cheap talk game with a sequence of short-run receivers, who observe some record of feedback about past 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