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��ࡱ�>�� u �r��~bjbj�n�n2��a��a�v ��""��8�tm$��ol��woyoyoyoyoyoyo$dq�tf�o��o��4�osss�r��wos�wosss��eh8�f��(sco�o0�os`t?f`tss�/`t�;l(��s��o�o��o��`t��"qs: global environmental change volume 78, issue 1, january 2023 1. title: biodiversity mediates relationships between anthropogenic drivers and ecosystem services across global mountain, island and delta systems authors: martin oliver reader, maarten b. eppinga, hugo jan de boer, alexander damm, ... maria j. santos abstract: global change increasingly threatens nature, endangering the ecosystem services human wellbeing depends upon. biodiversity potentially mediates these impacts by providing resilience to ecosystems. while biodiversity has been linked to resilience and ecosystem service supply on smaller scales, we lack understanding of whether mediating interactions between biodiversity and anthropogenic drivers are global and ubiquitous, and how they might differ between systems. here, we examine the potential for biodiversity to mediate anthropogenic driver-ecosystem service relationships using global datasets across three distinct systems: mountains, islands and deltas. we found that driver-ecosystem service relationships were stronger where biodiversity was more intact, and weaker at higher species richness, reflecting the negative correlation between intactness and richness. mediation was most common in mountains, then islands, then deltas; reducing with anthropogenic impact. such patterns were found across provisioning and regulating ecosystem services, and occurred most commonly with climate change and built infrastructure. further, we investigated the contribution of biodiversity and abiotic and anthropogenic drivers to ecosystem services. ecosystem service supply was associated with abiotic and anthropogenic drivers alongside biodiversity, but all drivers were important to different ecosystem services. our results empirically show the importance of accounting for the different roles that biodiversity plays in mediating human relationships with nature, and reinforce the importance of maintaining intact biodiversity in ecosystem functioning. 2. title: assessing protected area�s carbon stocks and ecological structure at regional-scale using gedi lidar authors: mengyu liang, mariano gonz�lez-roglich, patrick roehrdanz, karyn tabor, ... laura duncanson abstract: protected areas (pas) serve as a critical strategy for protecting natural resources, conserving biodiversity, and mitigating climate change. while there is a critical need to guide area-based conservation efforts, a systematic assessment of pa effectiveness for storing carbon stocks has not been possible due to the lack of globally consistent forest biomass data. in this study, we present a new methodology utilizing forest structural information and aboveground biomass density (agbd) obtained from the global ecosystem dynamics investigation (gedi) mission. we compare pas with similar, unprotected forests obtained through statistical matching to assess differences in carbon storage and forest structure. we also assess matching outcomes for a robust and minimally biased way to quantify pa efficacy. we find that all analyzed pas in tanzania possess higher biomass densities than their unprotected counterfactuals (24.4% higher on average). this is also true for other forest structure metrics, including tree height, canopy cover, and plant area index (pai). we also find that community-governed pas are the most effective category of pas at preserving forest structure and agbd � often outperforming those managed by international or national entities. in addition, pas designated under more than one entity perform better than the pas with a single designation, especially those with multiple international designations. finally, our findings suggest that smaller pas may be more effective for conservation, depending on levels of connectivity. taken together, these findings support the designation of pas as an effective means for forest management with considerable potential to protect forest ecosystems and achieve long-term climate goals. 3. title: exploring the potential of circular economy to mitigate pressures on biodiversity authors: enni ruokamo, hannu savolainen, jyri sepp�l�, susanna sironen, ... ari-pekka auvinen abstract: the effects of circular economy on biodiversity are poorly understood. this study provides observations on approaches for assessing circular economy and illustrates, with a finnish case study, the potential of circular economy to mitigate pressures on biodiversity. the case study focuses on the construction and real estate sectors, as well as the forest industry. the findings imply that circular economy actions that reduce the extraction of virgin raw materials and relieve land use pressures are effective. improving material efficiency, increasing the cascading use of wood, and optimizing the use and reuse of materials and products, as well as extending the lifetime of buildings and optimizing space use, have good potential for mitigating pressures on biodiversity in finland. however, as forest utilization has a major impact on finnish biodiversity, certain actions that possibly increase the use of forest resources (e.g., replacing fossil-based, concrete, or steel materials with wood-based solutions) may impair biodiversity if biodiversity-enhancing forest management practices are not utilized. assessing the biodiversity impacts of circular economy is challenging, and the need for further research and the development of indicators and assessment methods is clear. 4. title: landscape adaptation to climate change: local networks, social learning and co-creation processes for adaptive planning authors: juanjo galan, francisco galiana, d. johan kotze, kevin lynch, ... bas pedroli abstract: the development of legitimate, operative, and feasible landscape adaptation planning for climate change is dependent on the specific characteristics of the landscape and its inhabitants. spatial patterns, culture, governance systems, socio-economic structures, planning methods, history, and collectively envisioned futures need to be accommodated. the literature suggests that landscape is a complex and dynamic socio-ecological system, the management and adaptation of which requires systemic and integrative approaches to respond to a wide variety of drivers of change, challenges, and interests. based on activities developed in 15 european pilot landscapes, we identify some of the key factors and conditions affecting the generation of representative local networks for landscape adaptation to climate change. we illustrate how social learning and co-creation processes can be implemented in them and how their co-produced outcomes can help local communities overcome barriers and address critical issues in adaptive planning. our results provide a framework for the creation of similar networks in other landscapes, exploring at the same time the interactions between the composition of networks, social learning, and the quality of the co-produced outputs as a fundamental step for the development of landscape adaptation plans to climate change. 5. title: examining evidence for the finite pool of worry and finite pool of attention hypotheses authors: matthew r. sisco, sara m. constantino, yu gao, massimo tavoni, ... elke u. weber abstract: the finite pool of worry (fpw) hypothesis states that humans have finite emotional resources for worry, so that when we become more worried about one threat, worry about other threats decreases. despite its relevance, no conclusive empirical evidence for the hypothesis exists. we leverage the sudden onset of new worries introduced by the covid-19 pandemic as a natural experiment to test the fpw hypothesis and a related hypothesis, the finite pool of attention (fpa) hypothesis. the fpa hypothesis proposes that when we pay more attention to one threat, our attention to other threats decreases. to test these two hypotheses, we assessed self-reported attention, self-reported worries, and twitter/news attention to various threats (climate change, terrorism, economic problems, and others) throughout the pandemic in three countries (usa, italy, and china). we find that as attention to and worry about covid-19 increases, attention to climate change decreases, but worry does not. our results are confirmed by further analysis of a large, longitudinal u.s. sample. we find that public perceptions that covid-19 and climate change are related do not fully explain the positive relationship in worry between the two hazards. in summary, our findings suggest that while there may be a finite pool of attention to threats, there is limited evidence for a finite pool of worry. 6. title: assessing synergies and trade-offs of diverging paris-compliant mitigation strategies with long-term sdg objectives authors: jorge moreno, dirk-jan van de ven, jon sampedro, ajay gambhir, ... mikel gonzalez-eguino abstract: the sustainable development goals (sdgs) and the paris agreement are the two transformative agendas, which set the benchmarks for nations to address urgent social, economic and environmental challenges. aside from setting long-term goals, the pathways followed by nations will involve a series of synergies and trade-offs both between and within these agendas. since it will not be possible to optimise across the 17 sdgs while simultaneously transitioning to low-carbon societies, it will be necessary to implement policies to address the most critical aspects of the agendas and understand the implications for the other dimensions. here, we rely on a modelling exercise to analyse the long-term implications of a variety of paris-compliant mitigation strategies suggested in the recent scientific literature on multiple dimensions of the sdg agenda. the strategies included rely on technological solutions such as renewable energy deployment or carbon capture and storage, nature-based solutions such as afforestation and behavioural changes in the demand side. results for a selection of energy-environment sdgs suggest that some mitigation pathways could have negative implications on food and water prices, forest cover and increase pressure on water resources depending on the strategy followed, while renewable energy shares, household energy costs, ambient air pollution and yield impacts could be improved simultaneously while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. overall, results indicate that promoting changes in the demand side could be beneficial to limit potential trade-offs. 7. title: development and validation of the motivation to avoid food waste scale authors: daphne ribbers, maggie geuens, mario pandelaere, erica van herpen abstract: food waste is one of society�s biggest problems, with huge ecological, economic and social consequences. hence, there is a necessity to derive a better insight in how consumers can be triggered to avoid food waste. although it is generally known that motivations are important drivers of human behavior, limited attention has been paid to motivations in the food waste context and no viable measurement instrument exists that systematically takes into account the different motivations underlying the avoidance of food waste. current scales related to food waste concern encompass attitude and awareness items only. the current paper aims to fill this gap and develops a 21-item motivation to avoid food waste (mafw) scale. since consumers may be driven by different motivations to avoid food waste, special attention is paid to the multidimensionality of food waste avoidance motivations. specifically, the mafw-scale consists of four motivations: environmental, moral, financial and social motivations. three studies demonstrate the scale�s internal reliability, test-retest reliability, nomological validity, and predictive validity. the mafw-scale fosters research into the genesis of consumers� food waste behaviors, and can serve as a tool to segment and target (un)motivated consumers. 8. title: disparate history of transgressing planetary boundaries for nutrients authors: v. sandstr�m, j. kaseva, m. porkka, m. kuisma, ... h. kahiluoto abstract: the activation of nitrogen and phosphorus for food production has caused the transgression of the safe operating space of the earth system. however, countries differ in the use of their fair share of global nutrient activation, causing a disparity that has severe implications for the environment, land degradation and food security. both the impact on earth system processes as well as productivity gains and losses and the consequent socio-economic impacts depend on past use. therefore, in this study, we examined how the activation of nitrogen and phosphorus for food production in relation to countries� fair shares has evolved globally. the first transgressions of the planetary boundaries occurred in 1970 and 1964 for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. since then, activation has increased 160% and 200%, respectively. further, notable differences were observed between countries, in which high-income regions such as western europe and north america had the highest cumulative transgression and sub-saharan africa and oceania had the greatest deficit relative to their fair shares. the main driver for transgression was economic growth rather than population growth or the relatively recent fertiliser subsidies. although the use of fertilisers has decreased in areas with previous high use, past usage will slow down the effects of fertiliser reductions on ecosystem recovery and maintain a legacy of inequality. consequently, in addition to reductions in nitrogen and phosphorus activation, recycling accumulated nutrients to regions operating below their fair shares should be explored and economically enabled in order to secure earth system functioning while eradicating hunger. 9. title: values shift in response to social learning through deliberation about protected areas authors: riley andrade, carena j. van riper, devin j. goodson, dana n. johnson, ... christopher m. raymond abstract: salient, long-term solutions to address global environmental change hinge on management strategies that are inclusive of local voices and that recognize the array of values held by surrounding communities. group-based participatory processes that involve deliberation of multiple stakeholders with varying perspectives�particularly social learning�hold promise to advance inclusive conservation by identifying and creating a shared understanding of the landscape. however, few studies have empirically investigated how the value basis of stakeholder deliberation changes over time in relation to social learning. this study provided a novel platform for local stakeholders from interior alaska to deliberate on landscape change and associated management practices in ways that shifted their value orientations. in particular, we used a pre-test, post-test experimental design involving mixed methods to measure how different types of values changed as a result of social learning through an online discussion forum. we found evidence that social learning: 1) activated shared values that were previously hidden through building a relational understanding of others, and 2) shifted values that spanned three levels of psychological stability. as hypothesized, social values that represented expressed preferences for landscape change were most likely to shift in association with social learning. conversely, shifts in individual values towards self-transcendence required learning to go beyond the discussion forum and be situated within the participants� broader communities of practice. overall, this longitudinal study highlights how social learning facilitated through deliberation presents opportunities to identify shared values and spark value shifts across stakeholder groups, thus incorporating diverse viewpoints into decision-making about global environmental change. 10. title: mobility and flexibility enable resilience of human harvesters to environmental perturbation authors: owen r. liu, mary fisher, blake e. feist, briana abrahms, ... jameal f. samhouri abstract: sustainable management of ecosystem services requires knowledge of both natural and human systems, but the adaptive behaviors of human harvesters in response to management changes and environmental variability are poorly understood. given the specter of accelerating climate change, it is especially critical to understand how human harvesters may respond to environmental perturbation. in this study, we identify characteristics that promoted resilience of one the most valuable fisheries on the west coast of the united states to a record marine heatwave. using movement telemetry linked to dungeness crab fishery landings records from more than 500 fishing vessels, encompassing 2.2 million geolocations and more than usd two billion in revenue, we found that commercial fishing vessels employed two, non-mutually exclusive strategies to cope with the anomalous environmental and management conditions imposed by the heatwave: increasing spatial mobility and diversifying fishery participation. the combination of these strategies appeared to be the most adaptive, as it produced the greatest increase in dungeness crab profits. in contrast, participants that specialized in a single fishery and concentrated fishing effort in small spatial areas did not perform as well. our data-driven approach reveals behaviors that can be promoted to improve the adaptive capacity of human harvesters in an era of unprecedented environmental perturbation. 11. title: ranking the risk of co2 emissions from seagrass soil carbon stocks under global change threats authors: martin dahl, kathryn mcmahon, paul s. lavery, serena h. hamilton, ... oscar serrano abstract: seagrass meadows are natural carbon storage hotspots at risk from global change threats, and their loss can result in the remineralization of soil carbon stocks and co2 emissions fueling climate change. here we used expert elicitation and empirical evidence to assess the risk of co2 emissions from seagrass soils caused by multiple human-induced, biological and climate change threats. judgments from 41 experts were synthesized into a seagrass co2 emission risk score based on vulnerability factors (i.e., spatial scale, frequency, magnitude, resistance and recovery) to seagrass soil organic carbon stocks. experts perceived that climate change threats (e.g., gradual ocean warming and increased storminess) have the highest risk for co2 emissions at global spatial scales, while direct threats (i.e., dredging and building of a marina or jetty) have the largest co2 emission risks at local spatial scales. a review of existing peer-reviewed literature showed a scarcity of studies assessing co2 emissions following seagrass disturbance, but the limited empirical evidence partly confirmed the opinion of experts. the literature review indicated that direct and long-term disturbances have the greatest negative impact on soil carbon stocks per unit area, highlighting that immediate management actions after disturbances to recover the seagrass canopy can significantly reduce soil co2 emissions. we conclude that further empirical evidence assessing global change threats on the seagrass carbon sink capacity is required to aid broader uptake of seagrass into blue carbon policy frameworks. the preliminary findings from this study can be used to estimate the potential risk of co2 emissions from seagrass habitats under threat and guide nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation. 12. title: national leverage points to reduce global pesticide pollution authors: david wuepper, fiona h.m. tang, robert finger abstract: there is an urgent need to reduce the environmental risk of pesticide pollution worldwide. we here explore national leverage points, using a novel dataset of 21.4 million georeferenced grid cells and a spatial regression discontinuity design. our analysis lets us separate how much cross-country differences in the risk of pesticide pollution are caused by differences in countries� agricultural systems and policies and how much is explained by other factors, such as environmental differences between the countries for example (e.g. pest pressures). we estimate that a third of the global cross-country differences in the pesticide pollution risk are caused by differences in countries� agricultural systems and policies. the main explanations, and thus leverage points for policies, are differences in countries� pesticide regulations, their share of organic farming, and type of crops that are grown. we find a trade-off between pesticide pollution risk and soil erosion only in the americas and in asia, but not elsewhere, and we do not find a trade-off between pesticide pollution risk and crop yield gaps. 13. title: explaining the stickiness of supply chain relations in the brazilian soybean trade authors: tiago n.p. dos reis, vivian ribeiro, rachael d. garrett, tobias kuemmerle, ... patrick meyfroidt abstract: the global trade of agricultural commodities has profound social-ecological impacts, from potentially increasing food availability and agricultural efficiency, to displacing local communities, and to incentivizing environmental destruction. supply chain stickiness, understood as the stability in trading relationships between supply chain actors, moderates the impacts of agricultural commodity production and the possibilities for supply-chain interventions. however, what factors determine stickiness, that is, how and why farmers, traders, food processors, and consumer countries, develop and maintain trading relationships with specific producing regions, remains unclear. here, we use data on the brazilian soy supply chain, a mixed methods approach based on extensive actor-based fieldwork, and an explanatory regression model, to identify and explore the factors that influence stickiness between places of production and supply chain actors. we find four groups of factors to be important: economic incentives, institutional enablers and constraints, social and power dimensions, and biophysical and technological conditions. among the factors we explore, surplus capacity in soy processing infrastructure, (i.e., crushing and storage facilities) is important in increasing stickiness, as is export-oriented production. conversely, volatility in market demand expressed by farm-gate soy prices and lower land-tenure security are key factors reducing stickiness. importantly, we uncover heterogeneity and context-specificity in the factors determining stickiness, suggesting tailored supply-chain interventions are beneficial. understanding supply chain stickiness does not, in itself, provide silver-bullet solutions to stopping deforestation, but it is a crucial prerequisite to understanding the relationships between supply chain actors and producing regions, identifying entry points for supply chain sustainability interventions, assessing the effectiveness of such interventions, forecasting the restructuring of trade flows, and considering sourcing patterns of supply chain actors in territorial planning. 14. title: low-carbon transition risks for india�s financial system authors: sarah colenbrander, prashant vaze, cymroan vikas, sourajit ayer, ... lily burge abstract: as the low-carbon transition accelerates, loans to and investments in carbon-intensive assets, firms and sectors are at risk of not generating the anticipated returns, with implications for individual financial institutions as well as financial markets more broadly. however, research on this topic has largely been focused on high- and upper-middle income economies to date. in this paper, we explore the salience of this issue in india � one of the world�s largest emitters and economies � by asking: (1) how extensive is financial-sector exposure to transition risks? and: (2) are finance professionals and financial institutions taking sufficient action to manage those transition risks? our findings reveal that india�s financial sector is much more heavily exposed to low-carbon transition risks than standard borrowing classifications might suggest. for example, our granular assessment of individual loans and bonds finds that three-fifths of lending to the �mining� sector is for oil and gas extraction, while one-fifth of �manufacturing� debt is for petroleum refining and related industries. we also find that electricity production � by far the largest source of emissions � accounts for 5.2% of outstanding credit, but that only 17.5% of this lending is to pureplay renewables. yet our survey of india�s largest financial institutions suggests that there have been limited efforts to identify, measure or manage low-carbon transition risks. fewer than half of the 154 finance professionals surveyed were familiar with environmental issues including climate change mitigation and adaption, greenhouse gas emissions or transition risks. only four of the ten major financial institutions surveyed collect information on esg risks, and these firms do not systematically incorporate that data into business continuity planning, internal capital adequacy assessment processes, credit risk assessments, enterprise risk management frameworks or loan product pricing. given extensive financial-sector exposure to low-carbon transition risks coupled with the absence of bottom-up action to manage those risks, our findings suggest that financiers, regulators and policymakers in emerging and developing economies should be acting swiftly to ensure an orderly transition to net-zero. 15. title: carbon tax salience counteracts price effects through moral licensing authors: patrick hartmann, aitor marcos, jose m. barrutia abstract: carbon taxes raise the costs of carbon-intensive products to penalize their consumption. policymakers can decide whether the carbon tax is hidden or indicated explicitly as a component of the retail price. this policy design decision has effects on demand that have been overlooked. here we show that salient carbon taxes are less effective than hidden taxes in reducing demand because being aware of paying a carbon tax activates a moral licensing process that encourages consumption. across four experimental studies and two pilot experiments, we found that participants� purchase intention was consistently higher when the carbon tax was salient. this effect remained robust with different products, carbon tax levels, and additional carbon footprint labels. salient carbon taxes had a stronger effect on the purchase intention of the climate change concerned and less conservative individuals because they were more susceptible to a boost in moral self-concept triggered by paying the carbon tax. 16. title: why are sustainable practices often elusive? the role of information flow in the management of networked human-environment interactions authors: stefani a. crabtree, jennifer g. kahn, rowan jackson, spencer a. wood, ... andrew j dugmore abstract: analyzing the spatial and temporal properties of information flow with a multi-century perspective could illuminate the sustainability of human resource-use strategies. this paper uses historical and archaeological datasets to assess how spatial, temporal, cognitive, and cultural limitations impact the generation and flow of information about ecosystems within past societies, and thus lead to tradeoffs in sustainable practices. while it is well understood that conflicting priorities can inhibit successful outcomes, case studies from eastern polynesia, the north atlantic, and the american southwest suggest that imperfect information can also be a major impediment to sustainability. we formally develop a conceptual model of environmental information flow and perception (enifpe) to examine the scale of information flow to a society and the quality of the information needed to promote sustainable coupled natural-human systems. in our case studies, we assess key aspects of information flow by focusing on food web relationships and nutrient flows in socio-ecological systems, as well as the life cycles, population dynamics, and seasonal rhythms of organisms, the patterns and timing of species� migration, and the trajectories of human-induced environmental change. we argue that the spatial and temporal dimensions of human environments shape society�s ability to wield information, while acknowledging that varied cultural factors also focus a society�s ability to act on such information. our analyses demonstrate the analytical importance of completed experiments from the past, and their utility for contemporary debates concerning managing imperfect information and addressing conflicting priorities in modern environmental management and resource use. 17. title: social and structural vulnerabilities: associations with disaster readiness authors: smitha rao, fiona c. doherty, samantha teixeira, david t. takeuchi, shanta pandey abstract: the ability to plan for a disaster is associated with a range of contextual factors and often traverses several sites of inequities, including sociodemographic and institutional disparities. while multiple studies have investigated the relationship of housing insecurity with adverse outcomes after a disaster, fewer studies have examined how housing insecurity is associated with disaster preparedness. this paper hypothesizes social and structural vulnerabilities to be directly associated with preparedness. housing insecurity is posited to have both direct and multiplicative effects with social vulnerability on the dependent variable. we use nationally representative data from the 2017 american housing survey. the final weighted study sample consisted of 29,070 housing units, with 52% male and 48% female householders. fifty-seven percent of the population was not prepared with food, water, emergency funds, and transportation. housing security and quality emerged as important conditions for households to be better prepared. further, housing insecurity moderated the relationship between some social vulnerability factors and preparedness. the study helps identify where resources and research funds should be targeted to reduce multidimensional vulnerabilities before a disaster. safe and affordable housing is central to climate and environmental justice; centering disaster readiness, response, and climate action across policy agendas is vital. #%-.07:<=>@i��ʻʪʘ��um`rd7r0h�3�h�3�hj�5�ojqj^jo(h�3�h�3�5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#h�3�h�3�5�cjojqj^jaj h��5�cjojqj^jajo(h�3�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#h�3�h�3�5�cjojqj^jaj=>?�= ��2��<jk�&|#}#�#:$�)�)��gd�psgd)w�gd$?�gdto�gd�l$gd%j,gdu<�gd�"�$a$gdt4�; < = f g 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