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��ࡱ�>�� fh����e��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������u �r�e)bjbj�n�n2b��a��aw! �������""������������8�le�hplaaaaa����o�o�o�o�o�o�o$�q�jtf�o�������o��aa4p����b�a�a�o���o���a����`�<��������4��op0hp��t ^�t���0�t��l����������o�oi\���hp�������������������������������������������������������������������������t���������"q s: the american economic review volume 112, issue 8, august 2022 1. title: sentiment and speculation in a market with heterogeneous beliefs. authors: w. r. martin, ian; papadimitriou, dimitris. abstract: we present a model featuring risk-averse investors with heterogeneous beliefs. individuals who are correct in hindsight�whether through luck or judgment�get rich, so sentiment is bullish following good news and bearish following bad news. sentiment makes extreme outcomes far more important for pricing and has asymmetric effects on left- and right-skewed assets. investors take speculative positions that can conflict with their fundamental views. moderate investors are contrarian: they trade against excess volatility created by extremists. all investors view speculation as socially costly; but they also think it is in their self-interest, and the market can collapse entirely if speculation is banned. 2. title: market access and quality upgrading: evidence from four field experiments. authors: bold, tessa; ghisolfi, selene; nsonzi, frances; svensson, jakob. abstract: smallholder farming in many developing countries is characterized by low productivity and low-quality output. low quality limits the price farmers can command and their potential income. we conduct a series of experiments among maize farmers in uganda to shed light on the barriers to quality upgrading and to study its potential. we find that the causal return to quality is zero. providing access to a market where quality is paid a market premium led to an increase in farm productivity and income from farming. our findings reveal the importance of demand-side constraints in limiting rural income and productivity growth. 3. title: the impact of childhood social skills and self-control training on economic and noneconomic outcomes: evidence from a randomized experiment using administrative data. authors: algan, yann; beasley, elizabeth; c�t�, sylvana; park, jungwee; tremblay, richard e.; vitaro, frank. abstract: a childhood intervention to improve the social skills and self-control of at-risk kindergarten boys in the 1980s had positive impacts over the life course: higher trust and self-control as adolescents; increased social group membership, education, and reduced criminality as young adults; and increased marriage and employment as adults. using administrative data, we find this intervention increased average yearly employment income by about 20 percent and decreased average yearly social transfers by almost 40 percent. we estimate that $1 invested in this program around age 8 yields about $11 in benefits by age 39, with an internal rate of return of around 17 percent. 4. title: community colleges and upward mobility. authors: mountjoy, jack. abstract: two-year community colleges enroll nearly half of all first-time undergraduates in the united states, but to ambiguous effect: low persistence rates and the potential for diverting students from four-year institutions cast ambiguity over two-year colleges' contributions to upward mobility. this paper develops a new instrumental variables approach to identifying causal effects along multiple treatment margins, and applies it to linked education and earnings registries to disentangle the net impacts of two-year college access into two competing causal margins: significant value added for two-year entrants who otherwise would not have attended college, but negative impacts on students diverted from immediate four-year entry. 5. title: all eyes on them: a field experiment on citizen oversight and electoral integrity. authors: garbiras-d�az, natalia; montenegro, mateo. abstract: can information and communication technologies help citizens monitor their elections? we analyze a large-scale field experiment designed to answer this question in colombia. we leveraged facebook advertisements sent to over 4 million potential voters to encourage citizen reporting of electoral irregularities. we also cross-randomized whether candidates were informed about the campaign in a subset of municipalities. total reports, and evidence-backed ones, experienced a large increase. across a wide array of measures, electoral irregularities decreased. finally, the reporting campaign reduced the vote share of candidates dependent on irregularities. this light-touch intervention is more cost-effective than monitoring efforts traditionally used by policymakers. 6. title: capital gains taxes and real corporate investment: evidence from korea. authors: moon, terry s. abstract: this paper assesses the effects of capital gains taxes on investment in the republic of korea (hereafter, korea), where capital gains tax rates vary at the firm level by firm size. following a reform in 2014, firms with a tax cut increased investment by 34 log points and issued more equity by 9 cents per dollar of lagged revenue, relative to unaffected firms. additionally, the effects were larger for firms that appeared more cash constrained or went public after the reform. taken together, these findings are consistent with the "traditional view" predicting that lower payout taxes spur equity-financed investment by increasing marginal returns on investment. 7. title: supply network formation and fragility. authors: elliott, matthew; golub, benjamin; leduc, matthew v. abstract: we model the production of complex goods in a large supply network. each firm sources several essential inputs through relationships with other firms. individual supply relationships are at risk of idiosyncratic failure, which threatens to disrupt production. to protect against this, firms multisource inputs and strategically invest to make relationships stronger, trading off the cost of investment against the benefits of increased robustness. a supply network is called fragile if aggregate output is very sensitive to small aggregate shocks. we show that supply networks of intermediate productivity are fragile in equilibrium, even though this is always inefficient. the endogenous configuration of supply networks provides a new channel for the powerful amplification of shocks. 8. title: the economic effects of mafia: firm level evidence. authors: mirenda, litterio; mocetti, sauro; rizzica, lucia. abstract: we analyze the effects of mafia infiltration in the legal economy. combining information from investigative records with panel data on firms' governance and balance sheets, we build an indicator of infiltration in firms located in an area with no tradition of mafia. we show that mafia targets young and less efficient firms and that infiltration generates a significant rise in firms' revenues, with no proportionate growth in production inputs and a deterioration of the firm's financial situation leading to market exit. these findings are consistent with a story of predatory behavior in which infiltration is used for money laundering or rent extraction. 9. title: the human side of structural transformation. authors: porzio, tommaso; rossi, federico; santangelo, gabriella. abstract: we document that nearly half of the global decline in agricultural employment was driven by new cohorts entering the labor market. a new dataset of policy reforms supports an interpretation of these cohort effects as human capital. using a model of frictional labor reallocation, we conclude that human capital growth led to a sharp decline in the agricultural labor supply, accounting, at fixed prices, for 40 percent of the decrease in agricultural employment. this aggregate effect is halved in general equilibrium and it reflects the role of human capital as both a mediating factor and an independent driver of labor reallocation. 10. title: dynamic oligopoly and price stickiness. authors: wang, olivier; werning, iv�n. abstract: how does market concentration affect the potency of monetary policy? 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