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��ࡱ�>�� u �r��bjbj�n�n2��a��a@� ��""��8��<�vzl!!!!!uuu�y�y�y�y�y�y�y$�[��^<�y9�uuuuu�y��!!40z� � � u��!�!�y� u�y� � � !��2�z��4� �yfz0vz� �^��^� � d5�^�v�uu� uuuuu�y�y�uuuvzuuuu��^uuuuuuuuu"qs: the american political science review volume 118, issue 1, february 2024 1. title: the violence of law-and-order politics: the case of law enforcement candidates in brazil authors: lucas m. novaes abstract: this article analyzes the effects on violence of electing law-and-order candidates at the local level. it argues that law-and-order politicians embedded in the police will divert resources to favor their constituency, which in violence-prone areas could generate more murders. using ballot names of council candidates in thousands of local elections in brazil to accurately classify law-and-order candidates, it shows that the election of police law-and-order candidates causes more homicides. moreover, georeferenced data on police activity and homicides show neglect in areas that did not support a winning police law-and-order candidate, despite these areas being home to the majority of individuals vulnerable to violence. this favoritism, however, is not present in places where preexisting local institutions make policing more transparent. instead of persecution directed against minorities or the incapacity to battle criminal gangs, this research shows that surges in violence can be the result of typical forms of democratic representation. 2. title: political responsiveness to conflict victims: evidence from a countrywide audit experiment in colombia authors: joan barcel�, mauricio vela bar�n abstract: violence leaves significant social groups at a long-term disadvantage, including for generating income and accessing public services. in this article, we conduct a nationwide field experiment with local authorities in colombia to evaluate how politicians respond to conflict victims in providing access to social services. we find that local officials are more likely to respond to requests for help from victims than from ordinary citizens and return friendlier and more helpful responses. although politicians invest additional efforts to respond to conflict victims, we show that their responsiveness, affect, and helpfulness vary based on the ideological match between the party in power and the identity of the perpetrator of violence. using interviews, we present evidence that elected officials respond to victims to signal their commitment to peace and to separate themselves from violent groups on their ideological side. these findings provide new insights into the dynamics of political representation in postconflict societies. 3. title: extraction, assimilation, and accommodation: the historical foundations of indigenous�state relations in latin america authors: christopher l. carter abstract: why do some indigenous communities experience assimilation while others obtain government protection for their long-standing institutions and cultures? i argue that historical experiences with state-led labor conscription play a key role. in the early twentieth century, latin american governments conscripted unpaid indigenous labor to build infrastructure. community leaders threatened by this conscription were more likely to mobilize their communities to resist it. the mobilization of this collective action later empowered community leaders to achieve state protections for indigenous institutions and cultures, or �accommodation.� i test this argument using a natural experiment where communities� eligibility for labor conscription to build a 1920s peruvian highway was as-if randomly assigned. i develop a measure of accommodation that considers both the existence and enforcement of laws protecting indigenous institutions and cultures. i evaluate the mechanisms using data on indigenous mobilization. the findings demonstrate how historical extraction shaped contemporary indigenous�state relations. 4. title: impartial administration and peaceful agrarian reform: the foundations for democracy in scandinavia authors: david andersen abstract: why was the route to democracy in scandinavia extraordinarily stable? this paper answers this question by studying scandinavia�s eighteenth- and early nineteenth-century peaceful agrarian reforms, which contributed to auspicious state�society relations that made democracy progress relatively smoothly. based on comparisons with contemporary france and prussia and process-tracing evidence, the paper shows that scandinavia achieved relatively extensive and peaceful agrarian reforms because of relatively high levels of meritocratic recruitment to the central administration and state control over local administration, which ensured impartial policymaking and implementation. these findings challenge prevailing theories of democratization, demonstrating that the scandinavian countries represent an alternative, amicable path to democracy led by civil servants who attempt to transform their country socioeconomically. thus, strong state-cum-weak society countries likely have better odds of achieving stable democracy than weak state-cum-weak society countries. however, building bureaucratic state administrations alongside autonomous political societies is probably a safer road to democracy. 5. title: divided we unite: the nature of partyism and the role of coalition partnership in europe authors: hyeonho hahm, david hilpert, thomas k�nig abstract: highlighting the strength of �partyism� in many democracies, recent scholarship pays keen attention to increasing hostility and distrust among citizens across party lines, known as affective polarization. by combining a conjoint analysis with decision-making games such as dictator and trust games, we design a novel survey experiment to systematically estimate and compare the strength of the partisan divide relative to other social divides across 25 european democracies. this design also allows us to investigate how the two components of affective polarization, in-group favoritism and out-group derogation, are moderated by the way parties interact with each other. we first find dominance of the partisan divide compared to other social divides that constitute traditional cleavages such as social class and religion. second, we show that affective polarization in europe is not primarily driven by out-group animus. finally, we demonstrate that coalition partnership lessens affective polarization by reducing both in-group and out-group biases. 6. title: tilly goes to church: the religious and medieval roots of european state fragmentation authors: anna grzymala-busse abstract: the starting point for many analyses of european state development is the historical fragmentation of territorial authority. the dominant bellicist explanation for state formation argues that this fragmentation was an unintended consequence of imperial collapse, and that warfare in the early modern era overcame fragmentation by winnowing out small polities and consolidating strong states. using new data on papal conflict and religious institutions, i show instead that political fragmentation was the outcome of deliberate choices, that it is closely associated with papal conflict, and that political fragmentation persisted for longer than the bellicist explanations would predict. the medieval catholic church deliberately and effectively splintered political power in europe by forming temporal alliances, funding proxy wars, launching crusades, and advancing ideology to ensure its autonomy and power. the roots of european state formation are thus more religious, older, and intentional than often assumed. 7. title: the political consequences of green policies: evidence from italy authors: italo colantone, livio di lonardo, yotam margalit, marco percoco abstract: for many governments, enacting green policies is a priority, but such policies often impose on citizens substantial and uneven costs. how does the introduction of green policies affect voting? we study this question in the context of a major ban on polluting cars introduced in milan, which was strongly opposed by the populist right party lega. using several inferential strategies, we show that owners of banned vehicles who incurred a median loss of � 3,750 were significantly more likely to vote for lega in the subsequent elections. our analysis indicates that this electoral change did not stem from a broader shift against environmentalism, but rather from disaffection with the policy�s uneven pocketbook implications. in line with this pattern, recipients of compensation from the local government were not more likely to switch to lega. the findings highlight the central importance of distributive consequences in shaping the political ramifications of green policies. 8. title: from pluribus to unum? the civil war and imagined sovereignty in nineteenth-century america authors: melissa m. lee, nan zhang, tilmann herchenr�der abstract: contestation over the structure and location of final sovereign authority�the right to make and enforce binding rules�occupies a central role in political development. historically, war often settled these debates and institutionalized the victor�s vision of sovereignty. yet sovereign authority requires more than institutions; it ultimately rests on the recognition of the governed. how does war shape imagined sovereignty? we explore the effect of warfare in the united states, where the debate over two competing visions of sovereignty erupted into the american civil war. we exploit the grammatical shift in the �united states� from a plural to a singular noun as a measure of imagined sovereignty, drawing upon two large textual corpuses: newspapers (1800�99) and congressional speeches (1851�99). we demonstrate that war shapes imagined sovereignty, but for the north only. our results further suggest that northern republicans played an important role as ideational entrepreneurs in bringing about this shift. 9. title: war and nationalism: how ww1 battle deaths fueled civilians� support for the nazi party authors: alexander de juan, felix haass, carlo koos, sascha riaz, thomas tichelbaecker abstract: can wars breed nationalism? we argue that civilians� indirect exposure to war fatalities can trigger psychological processes that increase identification with their nation and ultimately strengthen support for nationalist parties. we test this argument in the context of the rise of the nazi party after world war 1 (ww1). to measure localized war exposure, we machine-coded information on 7.5 million german soldiers who were wounded or died in ww1. our empirical strategy leverages battlefield dynamics that cause plausibly exogenous variation in the county-level casualty fatality rate�the share of dead soldiers among all casualties. we find that throughout the interwar period, electoral support for right-wing nationalist parties, including the nazi party, was 2.6 percentage points higher in counties with above-median casualty fatality rates. consistent with our proposed mechanism, we find that this effect was driven by civilians rather than veterans and areas with a preexisting tradition of collective war commemoration. 10. title: coordinated dis-coordination authors: mai hassan abstract: dissidents mobilizing against a repressive regime benefit from using public information for tactical coordination since widespread knowledge about an upcoming event can increase participation. but public calls to protest make dissidents� anticipated activities legible to the regime, allowing security forces to better stifle mobilization. i examine collective action during sudan�s 2018�19 uprising and find that mobilization appeared to be publicly coordinated through social movement organizations and internet and communicative technology, consistent with common channels identified by existing literature. yet embedded field research reveals that some dissidents independently used public calls to secretly organize simultaneous contentious events away from publicized protest sites, perceiving that their deviations would make the regime�s repressive response relatively less efficient than the resulting efficiency losses on the movement�s mobilization. these findings push future work to interrogate more deeply the mechanisms by which dissidents use coordination channels that are also legible to the regime they are mobilizing against. 11. title: elite change without regime change: authoritarian persistence in africa and the end of the cold war authors: josef woldense, alex kroeger abstract: because the end of the cold war failed to produce widespread democratic transitions, it is often viewed as having had only a superficial effect on africa�s authoritarian regimes. we show this sentiment to be incorrect. focusing on the elite coalitions undergirding autocracies, we argue that the end of the cold war sparked profound changes in the constellation of alliances within regimes. it was an international event whose ripple effects altered the domestic political landscape and thereby enticed elite coalitions to transform and meet the new existential threat they faced. we demonstrate our argument using cabinets as a proxy for elite coalitions, showing that their composition drastically changed at the end of the cold war. africa�s authoritarian leaders dismissed many of the core members of their cabinets and increasingly appointed members of opposition parties to cabinet portfolios. such changes, we argue, represent the dynamic responses that enabled autocracies to persist. 12. title: state terror and long-run development: the persistence of the khmer rouge authors: donald grasse abstract: does mass repression have a long-term economic legacy, and if so, what explains persistence? i argue repression can undermine development by delimiting human capital. i study the aftermath of the khmer rouge in cambodia. the regime implemented a campaign of violence to reorganize society, yet governing elites varied across the communist ideological spectrum. i exploit an arbitrary border that allocated villages to either the loyalist mok or the relatively moderate sy in kampong speu province. using a regression discontinuity design, i find villages in the more extremist southwest zone are poorer today compared with villages in the adjacent west zone, and had lower human capital immediately after the regime. exposure to more intense repression shapes labor markets and child health, explaining intergenerational persistence. i find no conclusive evidence for other persistence channels. my findings add a novel pathway to the library of mechanisms which explain why historical coercion undermines development. 13. title: from victims to dissidents: legacies of violence and popular mobilization in iraq (2003�2018) authors: chantal berman, killian clarke, rima majed abstract: a growing literature links experiences of armed conflict with postwar political behavior. this paper examines how legacies of wartime violence shape dynamics of protest in twenty-first-century iraq. we argue that experiences of shared violence against civilians generate strong social and organizational ties, as individuals turn to neighbors, friends, and communal organizations or social groups to help them cope. these strengthened social networks endure beyond the end of the conflict, forming important vehicles that can facilitate the organization of protest when new grievances or opportunities arise. further, we posit that these effects will be strongest when the perpetrator of wartime violence is a clear out-group�e.g., a foreign army or non-coethnic militia�which facilitates network strengthening by creating a sense of collective victimization and in-group solidarity. we support these arguments using an original database of iraqi protests from 2010 to 2012 and data on civilian casualties during iraq�s 2004�2009 conflict. we further test our argument with geo-referenced arab barometer surveys. we leverage a case study of fallujah, based on original interviews and other qualitative data, to unpack mechanisms of network strengthening, endurance, and reactivation during the iraqi protest wave of 2011. 14. title: rule ambiguity, institutional clashes, and population loss: how wikipedia became the last good place on the internet authors: sverrir steinsson abstract: scholars usually portray institutions as stable, inviting a status quo bias in their theories. change, when it is theorized, is frequently attributed to exogenous factors. this paper, by contrast, proposes that institutional change can occur endogenously through population loss, as institutional losers become demotivated and leave, whereas institutional winners remain. this paper provides a detailed demonstration of how this form of endogenous change occurred on the english wikipedia. a qualitative content analysis shows that wikipedia transformed from a dubious source of information in its early years to an increasingly reliable one over time. process tracing shows that early outcomes of disputes over rule interpretations in different corners of the encyclopedia demobilized certain types of editors (while mobilizing others) and strengthened certain understandings of wikipedia�s ambiguous rules (while weakening others). over time, wikipedians who supported fringe content departed or were ousted. thus, population loss led to highly consequential institutional change. 15. title: the global resonance of human rights: what google trends can tell us authors: geoff dancy, christopher j. fariss abstract: where is the human rights discourse most resonant? we use aggregated cross-national google search data to test two divergent accounts of why human rights appeal to some populations but not others. the top-down model predicts that nationwide interest in human rights is attributable mainly to external factors such as foreign direct investment, transnational ngo campaigns, or international legalization, whereas the bottom-up model highlights the importance of internal factors such as economic growth and persistent repression. we find more evidence for the latter model: not only is interest in human rights more concentrated in the global south, but the discourse is also most resonant where people face regular state violence. in drawing these inferences, this article confronts high-level debates over whether human rights will remain relevant in the future, and whether the discourse still animates counter-hegemonic modes of resistance. the answer to both questions, our research suggests, is �yes.� 16. title: imperfect victims? civilian men, vulnerability, and policy preferences authors: anne-kathrin kreft, mattias agerberg abstract: who is deemed vulnerable and in need of protection has a bearing on important policy decisions, such as refugee acceptance or provision of aid. in war, dominant narratives construe women as paradigmatic victims, even while civilian men are disproportionately targeted in the most lethal forms of violence. how are such gender-essentialist notions reflected in public opinion? do regular citizens have inaccurate perceptions of male victimization in war, and with what consequences for their policy preferences? we carried out survey experiments among u.s. and u.k. respondents on both real and hypothetical conflicts, where we emphasized or varied the gender of the victims. in support of our expectations, respondents consistently underestimate the victimization of men, perceive civilian male victims as less innocent, and hold anti-male biases when it comes to accepting refugees and providing aid. however, informing respondents of the vulnerability of male civilians to targeted assassinations and massacres mitigates these effects. 17. title: nietzsche�s critique of power: mimicry and the advantage of the weak authors: thomas meredith abstract: while most scholars understand nietzsche as a full-throated proponent of power, i argue that his attitude toward power is far more ambivalent. nietzsche�s critical attitude toward power is most apparent in his analysis of mimicry�the process whereby one organism (the mimic) gains an evolutionary advantage through superficially resembling another (the model). nietzsche�s analysis of mimicry shows how power makes the strong not only indifferent but also actively hostile to adaptation and novelty. in contrast, the weak, precisely because of their weakness, are incentivized to understand, adapt to, and exploit the psychology of the strong. nietzsche reveals that mimicry is the means by which the weak were able to achieve a revolution in values through persuasion rather than force. ultimately, i argue that nietzsche�s analysis of mimicry provides a compelling account of social change, and reveals how power is maladaptive, in that it blinds and ossifies the powerful. 18. title: racial equality and anticolonial solidarity: ant�nor firmin�s global haitian liberalism authors: jared holley abstract: this article recovers ant�nor firmin�s contribution to anticolonial political thought by excavating his liberal worldmaking project of global racial equality and anticolonial solidarity. i assess firmin�s contrast between �true� and �false� liberalism in haiti, reconstructing his understanding of true haitian liberalism as committed to the core ideas of historical progress, national regeneration, and rehabilitation of the black race globally. i contextualize his equality of the human races in metropolitan paris during his first exile, arguing that his critique of anthropological racism should be seen as integral to his commitment to haitian liberalism. i then situate his discussion of what he called �european solidarity� in wider legitimating languages of french colonialism. this recovers firmin�s neglected critique of colonialism as a reciprocal system of economic exploitation and discursive domination, and his attempt to rescue the universal ideal of solidarity from its truncated expression in languages of racial inequality and practices of colonization. 19. title: eco-miserabilism and radical hope: on the utopian vision of post-apocalyptic environmentalism authors: mathias thaler abstract: eco-miserabilism�the thought that it is already too late to avert the collapse of human civilization�is gaining traction in contemporary environmentalism. this paper offers a �reparative� reading of this post-apocalyptic approach by defending it against those who associate it with defeatism and fatalism. my argument is that authors like roy scranton and the members of the dark mountain collective, while rejecting mainstream activism, remain invested in a specific kind of (radical) hope. eco-miserabilists, hence, promote an affective politics for our climate-changed world that is both negative and iconoclastic. without offering blueprints for a desirable future, they critically interrogate reality and disenchant the �cruel optimism� (lauren berlant) behind reformist plans for a �good anthropocene.� the ultimate target of the eco-miserabilist position is the illusion that groundbreaking innovations, either in the realm of science and technology or of ordinary representative politics, could redeem us on an environmentally ravaged planet. 20. title: immigration, backlash, and democracy authors: ryan pevnick abstract: how do considerations related to backlash affect the desirability of pursuing otherwise justified immigration policies? this paper argues that backlash-related considerations bear on immigration policy decisions in ways that are both more powerful and complicated than typically recognized. the standard possibility, the egalitarian backlash argument, endorses immigration restrictions in order to protect support for egalitarian distributive institutions. the paper shows that this account does not, by itself, provide a convincing rationale for restricting immigration because such diminished support is (a) likely outweighed by the benefits of more permissive immigration policies and (b) caused by the objectionable preferences of citizens. however, the paper develops an alternative account of the relevance of backlash-related considerations, the democratic backlash argument, which holds that increased levels of immigration threaten to contribute to undermining democratic institutions. this argument provides a more powerful rationale for restricting immigration, one that can�under identified conditions�justify immigration restrictions. 21. title: how deliberation happens: enabling deliberative reason authors: simon niemeyer, francesco veri, john s. dryzek, andr� b�chtiger abstract: we show, against skeptics, that however latent it may be in everyday life, the ability to reason effectively about politics can readily be activated when conditions are right. we justify a definition of deliberative reason, then develop and apply a deliberative reason index (dri) to analysis of 19 deliberative forums. dri increases over the course of deliberation in the vast majority of cases, but the extent of this increase depends upon enabling conditions. group building that activates deliberative norms makes the biggest difference, particularly in enabling participants to cope with complexity. without group building, complexity becomes more difficult to surmount, and planned direct impact on policy decisions may actually impede reasoning where complexity is high. our findings have implications beyond forum design for the staging of political discourse in the wider public sphere. 22. title: se habla espa�ol: spanish-language appeals and candidate evaluations in the united states authors: marques g. z�rate, enrique quezada-llanes, angel d. armenta abstract: political candidates use spanish-language appeals in efforts to increase their support among hispanic voters. we argue that candidates, hispanic or not, can use spanish to signal closeness to hispanics and posit that the effectiveness of these appeals is conditional on proficiency. to test this, we run two experiments where participants listen to an audio clip of a hypothetical candidate�s stump speech. we vary the ethnicity of the candidate (anglo or hispanic) and the language of the speech (english, non-native spanish, and native-like spanish). we find that hispanic support for the anglo and hispanic candidates is higher in the native-like spanish condition compared with the english-only condition. relative to the english condition, non-native spanish does not increase support for the anglo candidate, but it decreases support for the hispanic candidate. we find mixed effects for anglo participants. our results suggest that candidates can effectively appeal to hispanic voters using spanish-language messages. 23. title: diversity matters: the election of asian americans to u.s. state and federal legislatures authors: david lublin, matthew wright abstract: despite substantial research on descriptive representation for blacks and latinos, we know little about the electoral conditions under which asian candidates win office. leveraging a new dataset on asian american legislators elected from 2011 to 2020, combined with pre-existing and newly conducted surveys, we develop and test hypotheses related to asian american candidates� ingroup support, and their crossover appeal to other racial and ethnic groups. the data show asian americans preferring candidates of their own ethnic origin and of other asian ethnicities to non-asian candidates, indicating strong ethnic and panethnic motives. asian candidates have comparatively strong crossover appeal, winning at higher rates than blacks or latinos for any given percentage of the reference group. all else equal, asian american candidates fare best in multiracial districts, so growing diversity should benefit their electoral prospects. this crossover appeal is not closely tied to motives related to relative group status or threat. 24. title: dark parties: unveiling nonparty communities in american political campaigns authors: stan oklobdzija abstract: since 2010, independent expenditures have grown as a source of spending in american elections. a large and growing portion comes from �dark money� groups�political nonprofits whose terms of incorporation allow them to partially obscure their sources of income. i develop a new dataset of about 2,350,000 tax documents released by the irs and use it to test a new theory of political spending. i posit that pathways for anonymous giving allowed interest groups to form new networks and create new pathways for money into candidate races apart from established political parties. akin to networked party organizations discovered by other scholars, these dark money networks channel money from central hubs to peripheral electioneering groups. i further show that accounting for these dark money networks makes previously peripheral nodes more important to the larger network and diminishes the primacy of party affiliated organizations in funneling money into candidate races. 25. title: an outbreak of selective attribution: partisanship and blame in the covid-19 pandemic authors: matthew h. graham, shikhar singh abstract: crises and disasters give voters an opportunity to observe the incumbent�s response and reward or punish them for successes and failures. yet, even when voters perceive events similarly, they tend to attribute responsibility selectively, disproportionately crediting their party for positive developments and blaming opponents for negative developments. we examine selective attribution during the covid-19 pandemic in the united states, reporting three key findings. first, selective attribution rapidly emerged during the first weeks of the pandemic, a time in which democrats and republicans were otherwise updating their perceptions and behavior in parallel. second, selective attribution is caused by individual-level changes in perceptions of the pandemic. third, existing research has been too quick to explain selective attribution in terms of partisan-motivated reasoning. we find stronger evidence for an explanation rooted in beliefs about presidential competence. this recasts selective attribution�s implications for democratic accountability. 26. title: presidential investment in the administrative state authors: nicholas r. bednar, david e. lewis abstract: in this paper, we explain how presidents strategically invest in administrative capacity, noting that presidents have few incentives to invest effort in capacity building in most agencies. we test our account with two analyses. first, we examine the time it took for the bush, obama, trump, and biden administrations to nominate individuals to appointed positions. we find that presidents prioritize appointments to policy over management positions and that nominations occur sooner in agencies that implement presidential priorities. second, we examine the responses of federal executives to the 2020 survey on the future of government service to see whether perceptions of presidential investment in administrative capacity match our predictions. we find that federal executives perceive higher levels of investment when the agency is a priority of the president and when the agency shares the president�s policy views. we conclude with implications for our understanding of the modern presidency and government performance. 27. title: contested killings: the mobilizing effects of community contact with police violence authors: kevin t. morris, kelsey shoub abstract: recently, we have witnessed the politicizing effects of police killings in the united states. this project asks how such killings might (de)mobilize voters at the local level. we draw on multiple theoretical approaches to develop a theory of community contact with the police. we argue that when a highly visible event tied to government actions occurs�like a police killing�it can spur turnout. this is especially true where public narratives tie such events to government and structural causes. by comparing neighborhoods near a killing before and after election day, we estimate the causal effect on turnout. we find a mobilizing effect. these effects are larger when they �trend� on google, occur in black communities, or if the victim is black. proximity to a killing also increases support for abolishing the police. we conclude that police violence increases electoral participation in communities where narratives about racially unjust policing resonate most. 28. title: counterinsurgency tactics, rebel grievances, and who keeps fighting authors: connor huff abstract: how do government counterinsurgency tactics shape the behavior of the rebels they are combating? this letter builds upon foundational theories of civil war to argue that within-conflict government actions can further increase rebels� levels of grievances. this increases the likelihood rebels continue fighting as conflicts unfold. i test the argument using newly compiled individual-level data on over 1,700 members of the irish volunteers and irish citizen army who participated in the 1916 easter rising. rebels varied in whether they were interned after the uprising. i show that rebels who were interned were more likely to fight throughout the entire irish war of independence. qualitative evidence corroborates the contention that internment increased rebels� levels of grievances. the letter elucidates how within-conflict events shape rebel behavior, by documenting how the tactics governments employ as they fight can shape the subsequent actions of the rebels they are combating. 29. title: the silenced text: field experiments on gendered experiences of political participation authors: alan n. yan, rachel bernhard abstract: who gets to �speak up� in politics? whose voices are silenced? we conducted two field experiments to understand how harassment shapes the everyday experiences of politics for men and women in the united states today. we randomized the names campaign volunteers used to text supporters reminders to participate in a protest and call their representatives. we find that female-named volunteers receive more offensive, silencing, and withdrawal responses than male-named or ambiguously named volunteers. however, supporters were also more likely to respond and agree to their asks. these findings help make sense of prior research that finds women are less likely than men to participate in politics, and raise new questions about whether individual women may be perceived as symbolic representatives of women as a group. we conclude by discussing the implications for gender equality and political activism. 30. title: fathers� leave reduces sexist attitudes authors: margit tavits, petra schleiter, jonathan homola, dalston ward abstract: research shows that sexist attitudes are deeply ingrained, with adverse consequences in the socioeconomic and political sphere. we argue that parental leave for fathers�a policy reform that disrupts traditional gender roles and promotes less stereotypical ones�has the power to decrease attitudinal gender bias. contrasting the attitudes of new parents who were (and were not) directly affected by a real-world policy reform that tripled the amount of fathers� leave, we provide causal evidence that the reform increased gender-egalitarian views in the socioeconomic and political domains among mothers and fathers, and raised support for pro-female policies that potentially displace men among mothers. in contrast, informational, indirect exposure to the reform among the general public produced no attitudinal change. these results show that direct exposure to progressive social policy can weaken sexist attitudes, providing governments with a practical and effective tool to reduce harmful biases. 31. title: female representation and legitimacy: evidence from a harmonized experiment in jordan, morocco, and tunisia authors: kristen kao, ellen lust, marwa shalaby, chagai m. weiss abstract: how does the gender composition of deliberative committees affect citizens� evaluations of their decision-making processes? do citizens perceive decisions made by gender-balanced, legislative bodies as more legitimate than those made by all-male bodies? extant work on the link between women�s descriptive representation and perceptions of democratic legitimacy in advanced democracies finds the equal presence of women legitimizes decision-making. however, this relationship has not been tested in more patriarchal, less democratic settings. we employ survey experiments in jordan, morocco, and tunisia to investigate how citizens respond to gender representation in committees. we find that women�s presence promotes citizens� perceptions of the legitimacy of committee processes and outcomes and, moreover, that pro-women decisions are associated with higher levels of perceived legitimacy. thus, this study demonstrates the robustness of findings from the west regarding gender representation and contributes to the burgeoning literature on women and politics. 32. title: evidence of caste-class discrimination from a conjoint analysis of law enforcement officers authors: margaret l. boittin, rachel s. fisher, cecilia hyunjung mo abstract: when choosing what cases to investigate, do the police discriminate on the basis of caste and class? we employ a conjoint design to evaluate biases in police officers� preferences for investigation based on perpetrator attributes. conducting a survey of law enforcement officers in nepal, we find evidence of discriminatory investigation practices. absent constraining protocols that reduce officer discretion, police officers are more likely to target offenders who are from caste-class subjugated communities. additionally, police officers� assessments of institutional investigatory preferences reveal caste-based considerations: officers believe the police, in general, prefer to investigate low-caste offenders over high-caste offenders. they do not, however, perceive their institution as having class-based biases. these findings add to the body of evidence on whether police discriminate, which has previously focused on use of lethal force and police stops, and further demonstrate that concerns over systemic bias in policing are warranted. 33. title: democracy, public support, and measurement uncertainty authors: yuehong �cassandra� tai, yue hu, frederick solt abstract: do democratic regimes depend on public support to avoid backsliding? does public support, in turn, respond thermostatically to changes in democracy? two prominent recent studies (claassen 2020a; 2020b) reinvigorated the classic hypothesis on the positive relationship between public support for democracy and regime survival�and challenged its reciprocal counterpart�by using a latent variable approach to measure mass democratic support from cross-national survey data. however, both studies used only the point estimates of democratic support. we show that incorporating the concomitant measurement uncertainty into these analyses reveals that there is no support for either study�s conclusion. efforts to minimize the uncertainty by incorporating additional survey data still fail to yield evidence in support of either hypothesis. these results underscore the need for both more nuanced analyses of the relationships between public support and democracy and taking measurement uncertainty into account when working with latent variables. 34. title: modeling spatial heterogeneity and historical persistence: nazi concentration camps and contemporary intolerance authors: thomas b. pepinsky, sara wallace goodman, conrad ziller abstract: a wealth of recent research in comparative politics examines how spatial variation in historical conditions shapes modern political outcomes. in an article in the american political science review, homola, pereira, and tavits argue that germans who live nearer to former nazi concentration camps are more likely to display out-group intolerance. clarifying the conceptual foundations of posttreatment bias and reviewing the historical record on postwar state creation in germany, we argue that state-level differences confound the relationship between distance to camps and out-group intolerance. using publicly available european values survey data and electoral results from 2017, we find no consistent evidence that distance to camps is related to contemporary values. our findings have implications for literatures on historical persistence, causal inference with spatial data, holocaust studies, and outgroup tolerance. 35. title: re-evaluating machine learning for mrp given the comparable performance of (deep) hierarchical models authors: max goplerud abstract: multilevel regression and post-stratification (mrp) is a popular use of hierarchical models in political science. multiple papers have suggested that relying on machine learning methods can provide substantially better performance than traditional approaches that use hierarchical models. however, these comparisons are often unfair to traditional techniques as they omit possibly important interactions or nonlinear effects. i show that complex (�deep�) hierarchical models that include interactions can nearly match or outperform state-of-the-art machine learning methods. combining multiple models into an ensemble can improve performance, although deep hierarchical models are themselves given considerable weight in these ensembles. the main limitation to using deep hierarchical models is speed. this paper derives new techniques to further accelerate estimation using variational approximations. i provide software that uses weakly informative priors and can estimate nonlinear effects using splines. this allows flexible and complex hierarchical models to be fit as quickly as many comparable machine learning techniques. 36. title: fixed effects and post-treatment bias in legacy studies authors: jonathan homola, miguel m. pereira, margit tavits abstract: pepinsky, goodman, and ziller (2024, american political science review, pgz) reassess a recent study on the long-term consequences of concentration camps in germany. the authors conclude that accounting for contemporary (i.e., post-treatment) state heterogeneity in the models provides unbiased estimates of the effects of camps on current-day outgroup intolerance. in this note, we show that pgz�s empirical strategy rests on (a) a mischaracterization of what regional fixed effects capture and (b) two unrealistic assumptions that can be avoided with pre-treatment state fixed effects. we f%&-089;cfhijlu��ʸʸʸ��~qcuhc=hicy5�ojqj^jhj�5�ojqj^jo(h^�h^�5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h!@�5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#h^�h^�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#h^�h^�5�cjojqj^jaj&ijk��^ � ��%d��,��i|� � ��gd�psgd)w�gd$?�gdto�gd�l$gd%j,gdu<�gd�"�$a$gdt4��] ^ f g � � � � 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