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evaluate risk, in order to support and make appropriate decisions. in this article, we discuss how risk literacy relates to risk analysis/science with its topics of risk fundamentals (concepts), risk understanding, risk assessments, risk characterizations, risk perception, risk communication, and risk handling (covering risk management, risk governance, and policies on risk). we question how issues and research topics addressed in risk literacy relate to risk analysis/science knowledge, particularly on risk understanding. the main conclusion of the article is that risk literacy addresses an important topic�from both a theoretical and a practical societal relevancy perspective�and brings the potential for many additional developments and further insights if the topic is better integrated with risk science knowledge more broadly. 2. title: holistic rockfall risk assessment in high mountain areas affected by seismic activity: application to the uspallata valley, central andes, chile authors: manon farvacque, nicolas eckert, gabriel candia, franck bourrier, christophe corona, david toe abstract: over large regions exposed to natural disasters, cascading effects resulting from complex or concatenated natural processes may represent a large portion of total risk. populated high-mountain environments are a major concern, and methods for large-scale quantitative risk analyses are urgently required to improve risk mitigation. this article presents a comprehensive quantitative rockfall risk assessment over a large archetypal valley of the andean mountains, in central chile, which integrates a wide spectrum of elements at risk. risk is expressed as an expected damage both in monetary terms and casualties, at different scales relevant for decision making. notably, total rockfall risk is divided into its main drivers, which allows quantifying seismically induced rockfall risk. for this purpose, the local seismic hazard is quantified and the yield acceleration, that is, acceleration required to initiate rockfall, is determined at the regional scale. the probability of failure is thereafter derived in terms of annual frequency of rockfall initiation and integrated in the quantitative risk assessment (qra) process. our results show the significant role of seismic activity as the triggering mechanism of rockfalls, and highlight elements at risk that have a major contribution to the total risk. eventually a sensitivity analysis is conducted to (i) assess the robustness of obtained risk estimates to the data and modeling choices and (ii) identify the most influential assumptions. our approach evidences the feasibility of large-scale qras in sensitive environments and opens perspectives for refining qras in similar territories significantly affected by cascading effects and multihazards. 3. title: real options analysis for valuation of climate adaptation pathways with application to transit infrastructure authors: michael v. martello, andrew j. whittle, perry c. oddo, richard de neufville abstract: climate change and sea-level rise (slr) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. while regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (roa) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, slr, flood severity, and flood losses inform the full range of adaptation performance outcomes. we further propose and apply a novel, computationally efficient flood loss sampling algorithm to estimate the consequences of randomly arriving coastal flood events. we apply this roa framework to assess the option value of flexibly timing adaptation investments over time, investigating an adaptation pathway proposed by the city of boston from the perspective of the regional transit system manager. our results suggest that flexible implementation can provide significant option value in the near- to mid-term (>30 years), with the highest option values under low-probability, high-consequence scenarios. our results also suggest adaptation pathway performance in the latter half of the 21st century is most sensitive to uncertainty in slr, flood loss estimates, and flood frequency, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification in the long-term valuation of adaptation investments. 4. title: integrating irrational behavior into flood risk models to test the outcomes of policy interventions authors: linda geaves, jim hall, edmund penning-rowsell obe abstract: householders are increasingly responsible for managing residual flood risk at property level. yet, consumers are observed to adopt irrational behaviors under scenarios of risk, often making suboptimal decisions. therefore, the question is raised, if householders are required to manage flood risk at household level, how can this be made fair and efficient? policy instruments often incorporate �fairness� by subsidizing the costs of mitigation options, assuming a linear relationship between available finances and the uptake of risk mitigation measures. to integrate behavior into the assessment of policy instruments, this article develops a method to compare the uptake of flood mitigation between agents following models of expected monetary value (emv) and prospect theory (pt). an agent-based model is created, offering the option to apply either emv or pt frameworks. emv represents a rational gamble, determining whether an agent �should� invest in insurance or property-level protection. on the other hand, the pt option incorporates behavioral aspects to examine how agents are likely to respond to investment decisions in flood risk environments. the models are applied to flood re, a policy aimed at ensuring affordable insurance access for all individuals in flood risk areas. the results demonstrate that pt models exhibit greater similarity to observed behavior compared to models based on emv. these findings emphasize the importance of accommodating �irrational� behaviors within the design of policy instruments, promoting fairness and efficiency. overall, this research provides insights into the integration of behavior in policy assessments and highlights the benefits of considering pt frameworks alongside traditional rational models. by understanding and accounting for human behavior in decision-making processes, policymakers can design more effective and equitable policy instruments for managing flood risk. 5. title: interpretable ensemble imbalance learning strategies for the risk assessment of severe-low-level wind shear based on lidar and pireps authors: afaq khattak, pak-wai chan, feng chen, haorong peng abstract: the occurrence of severe low-level wind shear (s-llws) events in the vicinity of airport runways poses a significant threat to flight safety and exacerbates a burgeoning problem in civil aviation. identifying the risk factors that contribute to occurrences of s-llws can facilitate the improvement of aviation safety. despite the significant influence of s-llws on aviation safety, its occurrence is relatively infrequent in comparison to non-sllws incidents. in this study, we develop an s-llws risk prediction model through the utilization of ensemble imbalance learning (eil) strategies, namely, balancecascade, easyensemble, and rusboost. the data for this study were obtained from pireps and lidar at hong kong international airport. the analysis revealed that the balancecascade strategy outperforms easyensemble and rusboost in terms of prediction performance. afterward, the shapley additive explanations (shap) interpretation tool was used in conjunction with the balancecascade model for the risk assessment of various factors. the four most influential risk factors, according to the shap interpretation tool, were hourly temperature, runway 25ld, runway 25la, and rwy (encounter location of llws). s-llws was likely to happen at runway 25ld and runway 25la in temperatures ranging from low to moderate. similarly, a high proportion of s-llws events occurred near the runway threshold, and a relatively small proportion occurred away from it. the eil strategies in conjunction with the shap interpretation tool may accurately predict the s-llws without the need for data augmentation in the data pre-processing phase. 6. title: posthurricane damage assessment using satellite imagery and geolocation features authors: quoc dung cao, youngjun choe abstract: gaining timely and reliable situation awareness after hazard events such as a hurricane is crucial to emergency managers and first responders. one effective way to achieve that goal is through damage assessment. recently, disaster researchers have been utilizing imagery captured through satellites or drones to quantify the number of flooded/damaged buildings. in this paper, we propose a mixed-data approach, which leverages publicly available satellite imagery and geolocation features of the affected area to identify damaged buildings after a hurricane. the method demonstrated significant improvement from performing a similar task using only imagery features, based on a case study of hurricane harvey affecting greater houston area in 2017. this result opens door to a wide range of possibilities to unify the advancement in computer vision algorithms such as convolutional neural networks and traditional methods in damage assessment, for example, using flood depth or bare-earth topology. in this work, a creative choice of the geolocation features was made to provide extra information to the imagery features, but it is up to the users to decide which other features can be included to model the physical behavior of the events, depending on their domain knowledge and the type of disaster. 7. title: mitigating wildfire smoke inside homes: evidence from oregon, september 2020 authors: charles castillo, ruth dittrich, vivek shandas, elliott gall, olyssa starry abstract: the smoke produced by wildfires can travel great distances and lead to respiratory and/or cardiovascular health impacts through inhalation. individuals can reduce exposure by implementing smoke mitigation measures in their homes and beyond. in this article, we examine household level survey data (n = 543) on wildfire smoke mitigation in response to the september 2020 wildfires that occurred in the state of oregon (and beyond). the air quality was hazardous for about 10 days in many affected regions. this study assessed the implementation of six commonly referenced approaches to reducing exposure to smoke: staying indoors; keeping doors and windows closed, turning on hvac; using air purifiers; replacing air filters, and wearing face masks. we found high levels of implementation of staying indoors and keeping doors and windows closed; however, statistical analysis of socioeconomic demographics suggests that respondents vary in the implementation of the other measures. income, number of exposure days, and access to information on smoke mitigation were positively associated with the implementation. given the importance of information access for implementation for three of the measures, we also present data on how different age groups prefer to be contacted about air quality and smoke mitigation. for example, participants above 65 years of age prefer local tv as opposed to social media, whereas text messages were favored by all age groups. these survey results will help to inform the design of campaigns to engage community members differentially and potentially affect best communication practices and other assistance/preparation for smoke mitigation across demographics. 8. title: early warning systems and end-user decision-making: a risk formalism tool to aid communication and understanding authors: ram�n de el�a, juan jos� ruiz, ver�nica francce, pedro lohigorry, marcos saucedo, mat�as menalled, daniela d'amen abstract: in this work, we introduce a formalism to highlight the role of decision-making implicit in the setup of early warning systems (ewss) and its consequences with respect to loss avoidance for end users. the formalism, a close relative of the cost/loss approach, combines ews verification scores with traditional expressions of risk from the point of view of the user. this formalism articulates in mathematical format many well-known issues surrounding ews usage, offering a conceptual anchor for concepts that otherwise may seem to wobble among the multidisciplinary perspectives participating in the ews chain. this decision model is visually represented in a variation of the popular �performance diagram� used in forecast and warning verification. our diagram adds to this the perspective of a generic user, in an effort to gain insight into how choices made regarding ews settings may determine which users benefit from warnings and which do not. although these results are based on a conceptual model, they are useful to better understand the actual benefits experienced by users and to highlight aspects that may temper unrealistic expectations on ewss. the recent united nations initiative to extend ewss for natural hazards to all nations within 5 years will make ewss more common and more public. the approach proposed here can be a tool to promote greater transparency and improve the necessary dialog between warning issuers and users in order to reduce loss. 9. title: impact of respiratory aerosol size and number distribution on the relative importance of different routes in sars-cov-2 transmission authors: shuyi ji, rachael m. jones, hao lei abstract: exploring the relative importance of different routes in sars-cov-2 transmission is crucial in infection prevention. however, even in the same environmental setting, the relative importance of different routes has varied in different studies. we hypothesize that respiratory aerosol size and number distribution might play a key role. in this study, size and number distribution of respiratory droplets emitted from breathing, talking, and coughing were identified from pubmed and web of science. the infection risk of sars-cov-2 via airborne, droplet, and fomite transmission routes was modeled in a household and a healthcare setting. the relative importance of three routes varied with different size distributions in both settings. generally, the contribution of the airborne route increased with the volume percentage of respirable droplets emitted. and the increase of the total number of emitted droplets leads to an increase in the contribution of tdroplet route. in the healthcare setting, as the total number of emitted droplets increased from 110 to 4,973, the contribution of droplet route increased from 62.24% to 98.11%. next, by considering the combination of breathing, coughing, and talking when the infected person was asymptomatic, the airborne route predominated over the droplet and contact routes. when the infected person had developed symptoms, that is, cough, the droplet route played a dominant role in sars-cov-2 transmission. in conclusion, risk analyses will be improved with improved sampling methods that enable characterization of viruses within respiratory droplets of different sizes. 10. title: cross-contamination in the kitchen: a model for quantitative microbiological risk assessment authors: maria francesca iulietto, eric g. evers abstract: a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model for the cross-contamination transmission route in the kitchen (kcc) is presented. bacteria are transmitted from contaminated (chicken) meat to hands, kitchen utensils, and other surfaces, subsequently contaminating a salad. the model aims to estimate the fraction of bacteria on the meat that is ingested due to cross-contamination, determine the importance of the different transmission routes, and assess the effect of scenarios (interventions) on the fraction ingested. the cross-contamination routes defined, bacterial source-to-recipient transfer fractions as available and derived from literature, and important characteristics (e.g., washing in cold water vs. hot water with soap) shaped the kcc model. with this model, 32 scenarios of an eight-step preparation of a �meat and salad� meal in a domestic kitchen were stochastically simulated. the �cutting board-salad� route proved dominant and the salad plays a major role in the final exposure. a realistic scenario (washing hands, cutting board, and knife with cold water after cutting the meat) estimates that a mean fraction of 3.2e " 3 of the bacteria on the meat is ingested. in the case of  hand washing with hot water and soap and  cutting board and knife replacement, the mean fraction ingested is 3.6e " 6. for a subsequent meal, where the contaminated sources were kitchen fomites, the estimated mean fraction is 4.3e " 4. in case of hamburger, part of the bacteria is unavailable for cross-contamination, resulting in a mean fraction ingested of about 5.4e " 5. the role of the dishcloth in cross-contamination transmission proved to be minor. 11. title: estimating the health burden of foodborne gastroenteritis caused by non-typhoidal salmonella enterica and vibrio parahaemolyticus in zhejiang province, china authors: jiang chen, xialidan alifu, xiaojuan qi, ronghua zhang, lili chen, jikai wang, yunxian yu abstract: as acute gastrointestinal (agi) disease patients only sometimes seek medical care or submit stool samples for testing, and laboratories cannot detect or identify the pathogen, most cases of foodborne gastroenteritis still need to be identified through public health monitoring. we conducted a population survey and sentinel hospital surveillance to determine the burden of foodborne gastroenteritis caused by non-typhoidal salmonella enterica (nts) and vibrio parahaemolyticus infection, from july 2018 to june 2019 in zhejiang province, china, and a model for calculating disease burden established. using the burden of illness pyramid model, we estimated that there were 140.3 cases of nts infection and 136.2 cases of v. parahaemolyticus infection. we estimated annual incidence per 100,000 population in zhejiang province as 236 (95% confidence interval [ci] 208�267) and 206 (95% ci 155�232) cases for foodborne nts and v. parahaemolyticus gastroenteritis, respectively. the results show that agi caused by these two pathogens constitutes a substantial burden in the zhejiang population. the health burden of agi estimations caused by nts and v. parahaemolyticus in this study can serve as a strategic framework to direct policy and intervention. 12. title: inferring the distribution of norovirus in individual oysters below the limit of quantification by pooled sampling authors: jianxin wang, chen zhou, yeru wang abstract: norovirus (nov) in oysters is a food safety risk of much concern. in order to assess the risk of the exposure, the distribution of the number of nov copies contained in each oyster should be acquired first for comprehensively quantifying the associated risks. however, the part of the distribution below the limit of quantification cannot be obtained directly by laboratory detecting methods, which hampers accurate assessment. to tackle this challenging problem, a systematic method (distribution inference method by pooled sampling) is proposed to infer the unobservable part of distribution based upon all measurements of the pooled samples with n = 2. using convolutional integrals and real-coded genetic algorithm for inferring, this method has neither requirements for the type or properties of the original distribution, nor requirements for historical data, even nor requirements for the relationship between observable and unobservable parts of the distribution. a series of experiments were conducted on simulated datasets of a variety of types, including normal distribution, uniform distribution, gamma distribution, lognormal distribution, zero-inflated poisson distribution, their combinations, and even their splicing, covering common distribution types in oyster nov scenario and more general scenarios. the results show that almost all inferred simulation data and their original counterparts passed kolmogorov�smirnov tests, which implies that they are essential of the same distribution. based on this method, a ready-to-use web system was developed for researchers to infer their original distribution with pooled-sampling measurements from the detection of nov or even other substances. 13. title: childhood poisonings: effects of ambiguous product characteristics on preschool children's categorization of household chemicals authors: noah bosshart, angela bearth, stephanie wermelinger, moritz m. daum, michael siegrist abstract: this study investigated preschool children's categorization and risk perception of products with ambiguous product characteristics (e.g., food-like packaging). these characteristics make it difficult for preschool children to categorize household chemicals correctly. this, therefore, increases the risk of unintentional poisoning. we hypothesized that ambiguity arises from different product characteristics, such as the type of packaging, the products� scent, or the packaging's color and transparency. in four behavioral tasks, n = 108 preschool children (m = 43 months, sd = 3) categorized different products and household chemicals with various types of packaging, colors, and scents. individually wrapped dishwasher tablets were more likely to be categorized as edible than unwrapped ones. furthermore, children who had interacted with any type of dishwasher tablet in the last 6 months performed better in identifying dishwasher tablets, regardless of packaging type. household chemicals with a fruity scent were more likely to be categorized as drinkable than those with a chlorine scent. finally, the children considered black bottles more dangerous and preferred them less than bottles of a different color. in contrast, bottle transparency generally did not seem to affect risk perception and preference. these findings confirm that ambiguous product characteristics influence children's categorization of unknown products and, thus, their risk perception and decision-making. manufacturers and caregivers are advised to reduce the ambiguity of household chemicals by designing more neutral product packaging and choosing products with more neutral elements, respectively. 14. title: trust and subjective knowledge influence perceived risk of lead exposure authors: madeline goebel, chloe b. wardropper abstract: lead exposure is a persistent environmental hazard that poses risks to human health. but motivating protective action is challenging with this low visibility hazard whose health effects are often subtle and chronic. higher risk perception is generally associated with taking protective measures, so public health efforts prioritize risk messaging. yet, little is known about perceptions of lead exposure risk among the u.s. public. using cross-sectional data from a national survey of 1035 u.s. residents, we measured the role of trust in government management of lead and subjective knowledge about lead as predictors of perceived risk of lead exposure, controlling for demographic and environmental factors. we also assessed if subjective knowledge moderated the relationship between trust and perceived risk. our results reveal positive relationships between trust in government management of lead, subjective knowledge about lead, and risk perception, which we attribute in part to the important role government agencies play in secondary prevention, or communicating the risks of environmental lead exposure. we also found that younger people and people living in a house built before lead paint regulations passed in 1978 perceived higher lead risks. our findings suggest that general communication about lead risks should aim to increase people's subjective knowledge in a consistent and balanced way that improves trust in government messengers. 15. title: exploring and contextualizing the associations among political identification, vaccine risk and benefit perceptions, and vaccine acceptance authors: nien-tsu nancy chen abstract: there is considerable research on the influence of political partisanship on vaccine acceptance. however, the current study is one of the first to investigate how political identification is related to risk and benefit perceptions vis-�-vis vaccines. based on survey data collected in the united states regarding four different vaccines at three points in time (n = 383 for april�june 2012; n = 364 for march 2020; n = 334 for april�may 2020), democrats were found to have more positive attitudes toward vaccinations in general and hold more favorable risk and benefit perceptions of pandemic and routine vaccines overall compared to republicans. however, the onset of a pandemic can serve as an equalizing force and motivate similar risk and benefit perceptions across party lines, but this force can wane quickly when the information environment is politicized. for political partisans who are ideologically oriented to be more hesitant toward vaccines, two conditions can help sustain their favorable vaccine perceptions during a pandemic: (a) when they identify with the governing political party, and (b) when there are consistent reassurances of vaccine safety and effectiveness from their partisan leadership. given that risk and benefit perceptions were found to be consistently associated with vaccine acceptance across contexts in this study, communication aimed at encouraging vaccinations should always address the risks and benefits of a vaccine in ways that are tailored for individuals with different political affiliations. 16. title: the effect of likelihood and impact information on public response to severe weather warnings authors: andrea taylor, barbara summers, samuel domingos, natalie garrett, sophie yeomans abstract: meteorological services are increasingly moving away from issuing weather warnings based on the exceedance of meteorological thresholds (e.g., windspeed), toward risk-based (or �impact-based�) approaches. the uk met office's national severe weather warning service has been a pioneer of this approach, issuing yellow, amber, and red warnings based on an integrated evaluation of information about the likelihood of occurrence and potential impact severity. however, although this approach is inherently probabilistic, probabilistic information does not currently accompany public weather warning communications. in this study, we explored whether providing information about the likelihood and impact severity of forecast weather affected subjective judgments of likelihood, severity, concern, trust in forecast, and intention to take protective action. in a mixed-factorial online experiment, 550 uk residents from 2 regions with different weather profiles were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 warning format conditions (color-only, text, risk matrix) and presented with 3 warnings: high-probability/moderate-impact (amber hpmi); low-probability/high-impact (amber); high-probability/high-impact (red). amongst those presented with information about probability and impact severity, red high-likelihood/high-impact warnings elicited the strongest ratings on all dependent variables, followed by amber hpmi warnings. amber low-likelihood/high-impact warnings elicited the lowest perceived likelihood, severity, concern, trust, and intention to take protective responses. taken together, this indicates that uk residents are sensitive to probabilistic information for amber warnings, and that communicating that severe events are unlikely to occur reduces perceived risk, trust in the warning, and behavioral intention, even though potential impacts could be severe. we discuss the practical implications of this for weather warning communication. 17. title: time matters in pandemic risk communication: a moderated effect of information timeliness on stakeholder perception in singapore authors: fangxin yi phd, xiangyu (dale) li, shaocong yu, qiang zhang phd abstract: the outbreak of the covid-19 pandemic shows the increasing importance of determining the factors of the public perceptions of personal and societal risks. these perceptions can shape people's behaviors, which, in turn, alter the spread of a pandemic on the community level. however, previous research on risk communication was inconsistent, and little is known about the impact of timely warning messages on stakeholders' perceptions of public health emergencies. to address this theoretical gap, this study analyzes the survey data (n = 538) from singapore to explore 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