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volume 41, issue 12, december 2021
1. title: plutonium disposition: using and explaining complex risk-related methods
authors: michael greenberg, louis anthony cox jr.
abstract: applying risk assessment and management tools to plutonium disposition is a long-standing challenge for the u.s. government. the science is complicated, which has helped push risk assessment and management tools in new creative directions. yet, communicating effectively about increasingly complicated risk-science issues like plutonium disposition requires careful planning and speakers who can address why specific tools are selected, the past record of applying these tools, why assumptions sometimes are applied instead of reliable data, and how uncertainty is characterized. speakers addressing risk issues must also overcome obstacles in communication arising from expert�audience differences in knowledge and legal restrictions on disclosing information. this perspective seeks to highlight and illustrate five key risk questions, about probabilistic risk assessment (pra) and performance assessment (pa) in the context of managing plutonium defense nuclear waste: objectives, experience, gaps, transparency, and difficulty of applying and communicating using each tool. while the general public needs to be involved, some issues require a level of expertise that is typically beyond local communities and therefore an expert panel should support community access.
2. title: risk�risk tradeoffs for mass shootings and international terrorism
authors: rachel dalafave, w. kip viscusi
abstract: this article elicits information about risk perceptions and risk�risk tradeoffs for mass shootings and international terrorist attacks. these prominent public risks are similar in many respects in that both involve traumatic injuries. one might expect that the risk�risk tradeoff rate would be 1.0 unless other attributes of these risks are pertinent. estimates based on an original survey structured to test rates of tradeoff between deaths from these risks indicate that respondents consistently place a premium on reducing mass shooting risks, as compared to risks of international terrorism. the average premium is relatively stable even after accounting for the effect of differences in personal risk beliefs on policy preferences. the estimated rates of risk�risk tradeoff reflect a greater weight on mass shooting risks even for those who believe that international terrorism risks pose a greater personal threat.
3. title: socioscientific issues in science education: an opportunity to incorporate education about risk and risk analysis?
authors: linda schenk, karim hamza, leena arvanitis, iann lundeg�rd, andrzej wojcik, karin haglund
abstract: socioscientific issues (ssi) concern social issues, often lacking simple solutions, that relate to science and often also risk controversies. ssis have become an established part of science education, aiming to teach students not only about content knowledge but also about the nature of science and to offer them practice in argumentation and decision making. we performed a scoping review of the literature on ssi in science education research, in order to investigate if the topics covered would lean themselves to education about risk, and if risk is raised in these works. using web of science we identified 296 empirical publications and 91 theoretical or review publications about ssi teaching in science education. the empirical publications covered studies performed in primary to tertiary school, most commonly upper secondary school (32%). the most frequently taught ssi themes were nature conservation, biotechnology, and climate change. despite that these, as most of the other identified themes, clearly are connected to risk analysis and risk management, few publications raised the concept of risk and the methods of risk analysis. in fact, almost half (empirical: 48%, theoretical: 49%) did not mention risk at all. we argue that ssis present an opportunity for risk researchers to engage with educators to incorporate risk in school science education and to contribute in developing teaching materials suitable toward that aim.
4. title: communicating uncertainties about the effects of medical interventions using different display formats
authors: michelle mcdowell, astrid kause
abstract: communicating uncertainties in scientific evidence is important to accurately reflect scientific knowledge, increase public understanding of uncertainty, and to signal transparency and honesty in reporting. while techniques have been developed to facilitate the communication of uncertainty, many have not been empirically tested, compared for communicating different types of uncertainty, or their effects on different cognitive, trust, and behavioral outcomes have not been evaluated. the present study examined how a point estimate, imprecise estimate, conflicting estimates, or a statement about the lack of evidence about treatment effects, influenced participant's responses to communications about medical evidence. for each type of uncertainty, we adapted three display formats to communicate the information: tables, bar graphs, and icon arrays. we compared participant's best estimates of treatment effects, as well as effects on recall, subjective evaluations (understandability and usefuleness), certainty perceptions, perceptions of trustworthiness of the information, and behavioral intentions. we did not find any detrimental effects from communicating imprecision or conflicting estimates relative to a point estimate across any outcome. furthermore, there were more favorable responses to communicating imprecision or conflicting estimates relative to lack of evidence, where participants estimated the treatment would improve outcomes by 30�50% relative to a placebo. there were no differences across display formats, suggesting that, if well-designed, it may not matter which format is used. future research on specific display formats or uncertainty types and with larger sample sizes would be needed to detect small effects. implications for the communication of uncertainty are discussed.
5. title: the impact of experiences and perceptions of highly pathogenic avian influenza (hpai) on water-related biosecurity behaviour in rural vietnam
authors: mair�ad g. whelan, quynh b. le, david c. hall
abstract: background: in southeast asia from 2004 to 2006, highly pathogenic avian influenza (hpai) resulted in culling 45 million birds and jeopardizing sustainable agricultural production. hpai is highly virulent; small scale farms present a high risk environment for disease transmission between animals and humans. we investigated how attitudes toward hpai influence water related biosecurity mitigation behaviors on small scale farms in vietnam using the conceptual framework social cognitive theory. method: we analyzed a secondary cross sectional data set from northern (thai binh) and southern (an giang) provinces in vietnam, describing a stratified randomized selection of 600 small scale farmers who were interviewed using questionnaires and in person interviews. logistic regression analysis and odds ratios were used to examine relationships between factors influencing hpai attitudes, social norms, perceived importance, and behaviors (� = 0.10) results: concern about the severity of hpai was significantly associated with increased perceived importance for all water management biosecurity methods (p < 0.01). media and/or peer influence had negative effects on perceived importance to practice water related biosecurity (p < 0.10). high importance of practice water related biosecurity resulted in high uptake (p < 0.05). past experiences with hpai were significant in predicting perceived importance; none were significant in describing behavior uptake. discussion: biosecurity guidelines may not be consistent with management styles of vietnamese small scale farms; perceived importance of a behavior may be an important mediating variable. gaps exist in uptake of water management practices as biosecurity for hpai, potentially negatively affected by peer and media influence. our results should be of interest to public health and policy authorities addressing hpai mitigation.
6. title: optimizing island refuges against global catastrophic and existential biological threats: priorities and preparations
authors: matt boyd, nick wilson
abstract: human civilization is vulnerable to global catastrophic biological threats and existential threats. policy to mitigate the impact of major biological threats should consider worst-case scenarios. we aimed to strengthen existing research on island refuges as a mitigating mechanism against such threats by considering five additional factors as well as recent literature on catastrophic risks and resilience. we also analyzed the performance of potential refuge islands during early phases the covid-19 pandemic. using a composite indicator (scored from 0�1) based on 14 global macroindices, we present analysis supporting australia (0.71), new zealand (0.64), and iceland (0.58) as the leading candidate island nation refuges to safeguard the survival of humanity and a flourishing technological civilization from the threat of a catastrophic pandemic. data from the covid-19 pandemic supports this finding where islands have performed relatively well. we discuss the persisting weaknesses of even the best candidate refuges and the growing literature describing what preparations such a refuge should ensure to enhance resilience. refuge preparations by australia and new zealand, in particular, may additionally provide some immunity against winter-inducing catastrophes such as global nuclear war. existing disaster resilience frameworks such as the sendai framework could be worded to mandate preventive measures against global catastrophic and existential threats. the issue of island refuges against certain global catastrophic risks should be raised at relevant international political summits.
7. title: the covid university challenge: a hazard analysis of critical control points assessment of the return of students to higher education establishments
authors: kelly l. edmunds, laura bowater, julii brainard, jean-charles de coriolis, iain lake, rimsha r. malik, lorraine newark, neil ward, kay yeoman, paul r. hunter
abstract: the covid-19 pandemic has disrupted economies and societies throughout the world since early 2020. education is especially affected, with schools and universities widely closed for long periods. people under 25 years have the lowest risk of severe disease but their activities can be key to persistent ongoing community transmission. a challenge arose for how to provide education, including university level, without the activities of students increasing wider community sars-cov-2 infections. we used a hazard analysis of critical control points (haccp) framework to assess the risks associated with university student activity and recommend how to mitigate these risks. this tool appealed because it relies on multiagency collaboration and interdisciplinary expertise and yet is low cost, allowing rapid generation of evidence-based recommendations. we identified key critical control points associated with university student� activities, lifestyle, and interaction patterns both on-and-off campus. unacceptable contact thresholds and the most up-to-date guidance were used to identify levels of risk for potential sars-cov-2 transmission, as well as recommendations based on existing research and emerging evidence for strategies that can reduce the risks of transmission. employing the preventative measures we suggest can reduce the risks of sars-cov-2 transmission among and from university students. reduction of infectious disease transmission in this demographic will reduce overall community transmission, lower demands on health services and reduce risk of harm to clinically vulnerable individuals while allowing vital education activity to continue. haccp assessment proved a flexible tool for risk analysis in a specific setting in response to an emerging infectious disease threat. systematic approaches to assessing hazards and risk critical control points (#haccp) enable robust strategies for protecting students and staff in he settings during #covid19 pandemic.
8. title: aortic elasticity and arsenic exposure: a step function rather than a linear function
authors: jaeil ahn, steven h. lamm, hamid ferdosi, isabella j. boroje
abstract: while the dose�response relationship for the carcinogenic effects of arsenic exposure indicates nonlinearity with increases only above about 150 �g/l arsenic in drinking water, similar analyses of noncarcinogenic effects of arsenic exposure remain to be conducted. we present here an alternative analysis of data on a measure of aortic elasticity, a risk factor for hypertension, and its relationship to urinary arsenic levels. an occupational health study from ankara, turkey by karakulak et al. compared urinary arsenic levels and a measure of aortic elasticity (specifically, aortic strain) in workers with a linear no-threshold model. we have examined these data with three alternative models a fitted step-function, a stratified, and a weighted linear regression model. discontinuity within the data revealed two subsets of data, one for workers with urinary arsenic levels d" 160 �g/l whose mean aortic strain level was 11.3% and one for workers with arsenic levels > 160 �g/l whose mean aortic stain level was 5.33 % (p < 0.0001). several alternative models were examined that indicated the best model to be the threshold model with a threshold at a urinary arsenic level of 160 �g/l. observation of a discontinuity in the data revealed their better fit to a threshold model (at a urinary arsenic level of 160 �g/l) than to a linear-no threshold model. examinations with alternative models are recommended for studies of arsenic and hypertension and possibly other noncarcinogenic effects.
9. title: an optimized weighted na�ve bayes method for flood risk assessment
authors: xianzhe tang, yuqin shu, wei liu, jiufeng li, minnan liu, huafei yu
abstract: floods occur frequently and cause considerable damage to local environments. effectively assessing the flood risk contributes to reducing loss caused by such disasters. in this study, the weighted na�ve bayes (wnb) method was selected to evaluate flood risk, and the entropy weight method was employed to compute the weights. a sampling and verifying model was employed to generate the most accurate conditional probability table (macpt) to calculate the probability of flooding. when using the framework integrating wnb with the sampling and verifying model, previous studies could not obtain a wnb-based macpt and the wnb classification accuracy, for lacking wnb functions that could be called directly. facing this issue, in this study we developed wnb functions with the matlab platform to directly integrate with the sampling and verifying model to generate a wnb-based macpt, contributing to the greater interpretability and extensibility of the model. shantou and jieyang cities in china were selected as the study area. the results demonstrate that: (1) a wnb-based macpt can reflect the real spatial distribution of flood risk and (2) the wnb outperform the nb when integrated with the sampling and verifying model. the resulting gridded estimation reveal a detailed spatial pattern of flood risk, which can serve as a realistic reference for decision making related to floods. furthermore, the proposed method uses less data, which would be helpful in developing countries where long-term intensive hydrologic monitoring is limited.
10. title: risk science in higher education: the current and future role of risk science in the university curriculum
authors: shital a. thekdi, terje aven
abstract: risk and uncertainty are critical elements for decision making across fields, such as business, policy, engineering, and healthcare. as universities maintain and adapt curriculums to ensure their graduates are prepared for risk-related roles, there is momentum for risk science to be included in the curriculum. the study of risk science can be observed in programs devoted to risk fundamentals (for example on basic concepts like risk and probability) and risk assessment, risk perception and communication, and risk management and governance. additionally, selected concepts related to risk science, such as safety and resilience analysis and management, are increasingly being embedded into a broader range of university curriculums. the present article presents a structure for classifying these programs, by distinguishing between generic (fundamental) risk science and applied risk science, with subcategories reflecting both subject (topic) and domain (application area). an overall evaluation of the broad offerings in risk science through devoted curriculums and selected topics within other specialized fields is conducted on the basis of the study programs currently offered. perspectives are also provided on how to further enhance risk science studies at our universities and colleges.
11. title: determinants of risk disparity due to infrastructure service losses in disasters: a household service gap model
authors: amir esmalian, shangjia dong, natalie coleman, ali mostafavi
abstract: the objective of this article is to systematically assess and identify factors affecting risk disparity due to infrastructure service disruptions in extreme weather events. we propose a household service gap model that characterizes societal risks at the household level by examining service disruptions as threats, level of tolerance of households to disruptions as susceptibility, and experienced hardship as an indicator for the realized impacts of risk. the concept of �zone of tolerance� for the service disruptions was encapsulated to account for different capabilities of the households to endure the adverse impacts. the model was tested and validated in the context of power outages through survey data from the residents of harris county in the aftermath of hurricane harvey in 2017. the results show that households� need for utility service, preparedness level, the existence of substitutes, possession of social capital, previous experience with disasters, and risk communication affect the zone of tolerance within which households cope with service outages. in addition, sociodemographic characteristics, such as race and residence type, are shown to influence the zone of tolerance, and hence the level of hardship experienced by the affected households. the results reveal that population subgroups show variations in the tolerance level of service disruptions. the findings highlight the importance of integrating social dimensions into the resilience planning of infrastructure systems. the proposed model and results enable human-centric hazards mitigation and resilience planning to effectively reduce the risk disparity of vulnerable populations to service disruptions in disasters.
12. title: a two-stage data-driven spatiotemporal analysis to predict failure risk of urban sewer systems leveraging machine learning algorithms
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abstract: risk-informed asset management is key to maintaining optimal performance and efficiency of urban sewer systems. although sewer system failures are spatiotemporal in nature, previous studies analyzed failure risk from a unidimensional aspect (either spatial or temporal), not accounting for bidimensional spatiotemporal complexities. this is owing to the insufficiency of good-quality data, which ultimately leads to under-/overestimation of failure risk. here, we propose a generalized methodology/framework to facilitate a robust spatiotemporal analysis of urban sewer system failure risk, overcoming the intrinsic challenges of data imperfections�e.g., missing data, outliers, and imbalanced information. the framework includes a two-stage data-driven modeling technique that efficiently models the highly right-skewed sewer system failure data to predict the failure risk, leveraging a bidimensional space-time approach. we implemented our analysis for bogot�, the capital city of colombia. we train, test, and validate a battery of machine learning algorithms�logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, and xgboost�and select the best model in terms of goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy. finally, we illustrate the applicability of the framework in planning/scheduling sewer system maintenance operations using state-of-the-art optimization techniques. our proposed framework can help stakeholders to analyze the failure-risk models' performance under different discrimination thresholds, and provide managerial insights on the model's adequate spatial resolution and appropriateness of decentralized management for sewer system maintenance.
13. title: cascade sensitivity measures
authors: silvana m. pesenti, pietro millossovich, andreas tsanakas
abstract: in risk analysis, sensitivity measures quantify the extent to which the probability distribution of a model output is affected by changes (stresses) in individual random input factors. for input factors that are statistically dependent, we argue that a stress on one input should also precipitate stresses in other input factors. we introduce a novel sensitivity measure, termed cascade sensitivity, defined as a derivative of a risk measure applied on the output, in the direction of an input factor. the derivative is taken after suitably transforming the random vector of inputs, thus explicitly capturing the direct impact of the stressed input factor, as well as indirect effects via other inputs. furthermore, alternative representations of the cascade sensitivity measure are derived, allowing us to address practical issues, such as incomplete specification of the model and high computational costs. the applicability of the methodology is illustrated through the analysis of a commercially used insurance risk model.
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