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volume 41, issue 10, october 2021
1. title: adapting our flood risk policies to changing conditions
authors: carolyn kousky, howard kunreuther, siyuan xian, ning lin.
abstract: flooding causes more damage and severely impacts more people worldwide than any other natural disaster. flood risk in many parts of the united states is projected to increase due to both continued floodplain development and climate change. many of our institutions and public policies are not designed to address these changing risk conditions. the practice of grandfathering insurance premiums in the national flood insurance program (nfip)�allowing an insured to keep a lower rate even when risk has increased�is one such policy. we link a flood hazard model to a flood insurance premium calculator in order to provide illustrative calculations of the possible impact of grandfathering on program revenue and policyholder premiums due to sea level rise for a new york city neighborhood. we conclude by discussing how to preserve the financial soundness of the nfip while addressing the affordability of insurance in the face of increasing flood risk.
2. title: on the use of standards and guidelines as a tool to fulfil regulatory requirements
authors: christine l. berner nyvik, roger flage, seth guikema.
abstract: over the years, industrial safety regulation has shifted from a �hard� command and control regime to a �soft� regime. a �hard� regime includes the use of strict prescriptive requirements which explain how industry should solve particular issues. a �soft� regime, uses more functional requirements, pointing out what goals are to be achieved. in a �soft� regime, prescriptive standards might still exist, but they are considered suggested solutions, with alternative solutions also being considered if they achieve the overall regulatory goals. the purpose of such a shift is to create regulations that are more flexible, meaning that they are more open for the use of novel technology and for the use of risk assessments as a basis for decision making. however, it is not clear that the shift from a hard to a soft regime has made it easier to use risk assessments for such a purpose in practice. in the present article, we discuss the limitations caused by strict adherence to prescriptive requirements presented in standards or regulations and present our perspective on why and how these can limit risk management in practice. the article aims to discuss the strengths and weaknesses, with regard to risk management, when regulations are strictly dependent on prescriptive or specification-based standards and guidelines. several examples are used to illustrate some of the main challenges related to the use of specification-based technical standards and how the regulatory shift from �hard� to �soft� has not necessarily made it easier to implement technological solutions based on risk assessments.
3. title: risk analysis in the age of big data: the promises and pitfalls
authors: roshanak nateghi, terje aven.
abstract: despite its rising popularity, the novelty and merits of big data risk analysis are still debated. this perspective article contributes to the debate by clarifying what constitutes big data in the context of risk analysis and proposing that the discussions of big data attributes (i.e., scale, speed, and structure) and big data methods should go hand in hand. simple examples are used to illustrate the differences between big data risk analysis and traditional approaches. finally, a distinction is made between the conceptual definition of risk and how risk is measured to clarify the contributions of big data to risk assessment, and to highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for strength of knowledge in conducting big data risk analysis.
4. title: the economic effects of volcanic alerts�a case study of high-threat u.s. volcanoes
authors: justin b. peers, christopher e. gregg, michael k. lindell, denis pelletier, franco romerio, andrew t. joyner.
abstract: a common concern about volcanic unrest is that the communication of information about increasing volcanic alert levels (vals) to the public could cause serious social and economic impacts even if an eruption does not occur. to test this statement, this study examined housing prices and business patterns from 1974�2016 in volcanic regions with �very-high� threat designations from the u.s. geological survey (usgs)�long valley caldera (lvc), ca (caldera); mount st. helens (msh), washington (stratovolcano); and k lauea, hawai�i (shield volcano). to compare economic trends in nonvolcanic regions that are economically dependent on tourism, steamboat springs, co, served as a control as it is a ski-tourism community much like mammoth lakes in lvc. autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) models predicted that housing prices were negatively affected by vals at lvc from 1982�1983 and 1991�1997. while vals associated with unrest and eruptions included in this study both had short-term indirect effects on housing prices and business indicators (e.g., number of establishments, employment, and salary), these notifications were not strong predictors of long-term economic trends. our findings suggest that these indirect effects result from both eruptions with higher level vals and from unrest involving lower-level val notifications that communicate a change in volcanic activity but do not indicate that an eruption is imminent or underway. this provides evidence concerning a systemic issue in disaster resilience. while disaster relief is provided by the u.s. federal government for direct impacts associated with disaster events that result in presidential major disaster declarations, there is limited or no assistance for indirect effects to businesses and homeowners that may follow volcanic unrest with no resulting direct physical losses. the fact that periods of volcanic unrest preceding eruption are often protracted in comparison to precursory periods for other hazardous events (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes, flooding) makes the issue of indirect effects particularly important in regions susceptible to volcanic activity.
5. title: relational risk and collective management: a pathway to transformational risk management
authors: peter kamstra, brian cook, tim edensor, david kennedy, matthew kearnes.
abstract: risk tends to be conceptualized at the individual scale, with global risk communication and governance efforts fixated on an individual's knowledge and behavior. while individuals are undoubtedly influenced by those who surround them, such human�human interactions tend to be excluded from empirical and field-based analyses of risk taking. this study diverges from prevailing analyses of risk as an individualized phenomenon, exploring the collective and relational practices that influence risk while fishing from hazardous rocky coasts. the aim is to counter the near-universal tendency to individualize risk in empirical analyses by instead using a mixed-methodology that can quantify and enable consideration of collective responses to risk, in real-time. we demonstrate that both rock fishing practice and many of the high-risk events that emerge while rock fishing are managed collectively. compared to the tendency to individualize risk, we demonstrate that collective responses to risk are more representative of how risk is experienced and acted upon, with implications for risk management in countless contexts.
6. title: the benefits and costs of cybersecurity risk reduction: a dynamic extension of the gordon and loeb model
authors: kerry krutilla, alexander alexeev, eric jardine, david good.
abstract: this article develops a dynamic extension of the classic model of cybersecurity investment formulated by gordon and loeb. in this dynamic model, results are influenced by the rate at which cybersecurity assets depreciate and the rate of return on investment. depreciation costs are lower in the dynamic model than is implicitly assumed in the classic model, while the rate-of-return threshold is higher. on balance, the user cost of cybersecurity assets is lower in the dynamic model than is implicitly assumed in the classic model. this difference increases the economically efficient size of the cybersecurity system in value terms, increasing the efficient level of risk reduction.
7. title: a bayesian network model for seismic risk analysis
authors: y. zhang, w.g. weng.
abstract: earthquakes are one of the most unpredictable natural disasters. a series of secondary and derived disaster events may occur afterwards and lead to even more consequences. in such situations, a seismic risk analysis that takes into account secondary and derived disaster events is vital in reducing the risks of such disasters. the absence of a holistic seismic risk analysis model�one that takes into account the derived disaster events�may mean that the serious consequences of the disaster chains set off by earthquakes are neglected. this article proposes a comprehensive seismic risk analysis that enables a better understanding of seismic disaster chains and rescue scenarios. the approach is based on a bayesian network constructed using scenario-based methods. the final network structure is achieved by learning parameters. to determine the critical secondary disasters and the key emergency-response measures, probability adaptation and updating using the bayesian model were performed. the practical application of the model is illustrated using the wenchuan earthquake and the jiuzhaigou earthquake in china. the two examples show that the model can be used to predict the potential effects of secondary disasters and the final seismic losses. the results of the model can help decisionmakers gain a comprehensive understanding of seismic risk and implement practical emergency-rescue measures to reduce risk and losses.
8. title: methodology for maritime risk assessment in ports due to meteo-oceanographic factors: the case of the port of suape, brazil
authors: lucas azev�do, heitor duarte, daniel galv�o, paula michima, doris veleda, alexander kreuger.
abstract: exploring the effects of meteo-oceanographic (mo) events on ships� maneuverability and safety has great potential, since most maritime accidents occur in confined waters, where the speed of ships is low, and the forces of wind and current on ships have particular importance. therefore, we put forward a methodology that will be used to qualify and classify the risks caused by mo factors to how ships maneuver, dock or undock in a port. the objective is to generate important information for managing risk. the methodology is validated and illustrated step-by-step by applying it in suape, one of the most important ports in brazil, where the docking of larger tankers (e.g., suezmax) was not allowed until recently when dredging was done to fit the specifications of such ships, thereby expanding the port's operations. mo data on suape were collected and recorded from september 2016 to november 2017 and used for the application. based on expert opinion and discussion with a suape pilot, 36 accidental scenarios (ass) were identified and categorized using preliminary hazard analysis. from these, the seven most severe ass were selected so as to assess in more detail the frequency and consequences of accidents on human health, the environment, and property, for which the mo statistics for the likelihood of an accident and/or dispersal of an oil spill were used. the results show that the methodology is viable to assess risks caused by bad weather and to communicate these to pilots and competent authorities, thus improving the safety of operations.
9. title: delete or not: a game-theoretical model for soft censorship of rumor
authors: lifang li, qingpeng zhang, jun zhuang.
abstract: rumor censorship of social media platforms has become an important issue in the academia and in practice. however, most studies focus on the complete rumor censorship behavior rather than the soft censorship behavior of (social media) platforms. to characterize soft censorship behavior, we conduct analytical, numerical, and experimental analyses using game theory to determine the specific strategies of platforms and rumormongers. given that (1) the censorship behavior of platforms is costly and (2) platforms have a limited accuracy rate to identify rumors correctly, the platform may identify rumors as true information or identify true information as rumors; moreover, (3) rumormongers decide whether to publish rumors or not to avoid been deleted by the platforms. we found that (1) if deleting true information mistakenly has benefits rather than cost (the platform may cost less by not improving their rumor identification algorithms if the public pays less attention to the freedom of their speech), then platforms are more likely to censor rumormongers and delete the information they published; (2) if deleting true information is costly, then platforms become more cautious about their deleting behavior. this study explains why censoring is accepted by the public in some countries but is highly questionable in others. using these findings can help platforms understand the rumor publishing behavior of rumormongers and make decisions based on certain situations.
10. title: the influence of residents� resilience on the recovery in the torrential rain in western japan in 2018
authors: shoji ohtomo, reo kimura.
abstract: in 2018 torrential rain caused serious human suffering and damage to property in western japan. following such disasters, the investigation of residents� subsequent recovery process is important to determine the support required in affected areas and disaster risk management. this study examines the effects of psychological resilience on residents� life recovery following the torrential rain. we conducted a web survey with 1,000 residents in 13 districts of hiroshima prefecture and 6 districts of okayama prefecture that suffered the most damage caused by the torrential rain. the survey used the �recovery calendar� approach to assess residents� life recovery from the disaster. results indicated that residents who had suffered relatively little damage began to recover during the �disaster utopia� phase up to 2 months after the disaster. however, residents who had suffered serious damage began to recover during the �reentry to everyday life� phase up to 6 months after the disaster. moreover, older residents or residents with strong psychological resilience who suffered serious damage were likely to recover sooner than those with weaker psychological resilience. therefore, this study indicates the importance of an approach to disaster recovery according to the level of damage, phased time period, and psychological resilience.
11. title: understanding the links between climate change risk perceptions and the action response to inform climate services interventions
authors: anna steynor, lorena pasquini, andrew thatcher, bruce hewitson.
abstract: understanding what motivates people to act on climate change provides an opportunity to design more effective interventions, in particular, climate services interventions, by aligning them with factors that strongly influence action. climate change risk perceptions have been shown to underlie action on climate change. therefore, this study performs exploratory research to understand how various determinants of risk perceptions contribute and interact to influence climate change risk perceptions and professional action on climate change in east africa, in order to inform the context-specific design of climate services. using data collected through a region-wide survey, a model to risk perceptions and professional action was constructed through structural equation modeling. the model elucidates the cascading effects of variables such as age, gender, education, and personal values on action. in particular, it highlights a split in motivating factors among individuals with higher levels of self-enhancing values versus those with higher levels of self-transcending values. the model also highlights the prominent role that experience of extreme weather events, psychological proximity of climate change, climate change risk perceptions, and social norms play in motivating action. the model, therefore, offers a framework for prioritizing the various factors that motivate people to take adaptation action, which, in turn, provides a basis for informing climate services development going forward.
12. title: drinking water consumption patterns among private well users in ontario: implications for exposure assessment of waterborne infection
authors: sarah lavallee, tessa latchmore, paul d. hynds, r. stephen brown, corinne schuster-wallace, sarah dickson- anderson, anna majury.
abstract: understanding the water consumption patterns within a specific population informs development of increasingly accurate, spatially specific exposure and/or risk assessment of waterborne infection. the current study examined the consumption patterns of private well users in ontario while considering potentially influential underlying sociodemographics, household characteristics, and experiential factors. a province-wide online survey was circulated between may and august 2018 (n = 1,162). overall, 81.5% of respondents reported daily well water consumption (i.e., tap water). results indicate a mean daily well water consumption rate of 1,132 ml/day (sd = 649 ml/day) among well water consumers. gender was significantly associated with well water consumption, with higher consumption rates found among female respondents. the experience of acute gastrointestinal illness (agi) symptoms or diagnosis in the past 12 months did not impact the volume of water consumed, suggesting that experiencing previous agi does not decrease consumption volumes, and therefore exposure over time. significantly higher rates of well water consumption were found among respondents who reported previous testing or ongoing water treatment. approximately 45.5% of survey respondents who stated that they do not consume well water selected bottled water as their primary household drinking water supply. bottled water consumption was also not associated with previous agi experiences. findings will inform future quantitative microbial risk assessments associated with private well water use by providing spatially and demographically specific estimates of well water consumption.
13. title: quantitative microbial risk assessment (qmra) of workers exposure to bioaerosols at msw open dumpsites
authors: g. f. akpeimeh, l. a. fletcher, b. e. evans, i. e. ibanga.
abstract: the bioaerosol exposure data from the study by akpeimeh, fletcher, and evans (2019) was used to compute the risk of infection from the exposure of dumpsite workers to aspergillus fumigatus and escherichia coli o157:h7. a stochastic (markov chain) model was used to model the transport of the inhaled dose though the human respiratory system and then integrated into the beta-poisson dose�response model to estimate workers risks of respiratory and gastrointestinal (gi) infection. the infection risk was computed based on workers exposure to e. coli o157:h7 at 10�50% pathogen ingestion rate and pathogen-indicator ratio (p:i) of 1:103 and 1:104, while exposure to a. fumigatus was based solely on the average initial exposure dose. the results showed that after 11 hours of exposure, workers engaged in scavenging, waste sorting, and site monitoring were at risk of respiratory and gi infection in the magnitude of 10"1. however, the risk estimates associated with specific areas of the dumpsite showed that, the risk of gi infection at the active area ranged between 3.23 � 10"3 1.56 � 10"2 and 3.25 � 10"4 1.62 � 10"3; dormant area 2.06 � 10"3 1.01 � 10"2 and 2.09 � 10"4 1.04 � 10"3; entrance 1.85 � 10"3 9.09 � 10"3 and 1.87 � 10"4 9.27 � 10"4; boundary 1.82 � 10"3 8.82 � 10"3 and 2.09 � 10"4 8.94 � 10"4 for p:i = 1:103 and 1:104 respectively, while the risk of respiratory infection risks were in the magnitude of 10"1 for all four locations. the estimated risk of workers developing respiratory and gastrointestinal infections were high for all activities assessed at the dumpsite.
14. title: regional scale risk to the ecological sustainability and ecosystem services of an african floodplain system
authors: gordon o'brien, nico j smit, victor wepener.
abstract: the phongolo floodplain is one of southern africa's most important systems. in this study, we carried out a regional scale ecological risk assessment to evaluate the risk of multiple stressors associated with the use of the aquatic resources in the floodplain to selected social and ecological endpoints representing its sustainability. the floodplain has undergone significant changes as a result of the impacts of multiple stressors. this includes high risk of impact and threatened sustainability between the pongolapoort dam and the ndumo game reserve (ngr). this compares to relatively low risk to the maintenance of the endpoints within the ngr. the reserve provides a protection and refuge function for regional biodiversity maintenance and
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