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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�хbjbj�n�n2��a��a�\ ��""��8�d]��olyyyyy��o!o!o!o!o!o!o$hq��s<eoq��eo��yy4�o��2�y�yo��o��y��p�y��(�o�o0�o�:tf:t��0:t��k`��eoeom��o��:t��"qs: risk analysis volume 42, issue 10, october 2022 1. title: characterization of asbestos exposures associated with the use of facial makeups authors: michael holton, jennifer ellis, evan anderson, james poole abstract: there has been renewed interest in the safety of cosmetics that may contain asbestos or other elongate mineral particles at very low levels as a naturally occurring contaminant. the authors evaluated asbestos exposure during the application of facial makeups in a constructed chamber simulating a bathroom space. the facial makeups tested included products previously found to have very low or �trace� asbestos content by governmental and commercial laboratories using a variety of bulk analysis methods. tremolite asbestos was detected in five of 54 personal air samples and three of 72 area air samples in 18 simulations. the calculated geometric mean and 95th percentile task-based asbestos concentration associated with personal facial makeup use in this study, incorporating censored data, is 0.0015 and 0.0018 fiber per cubic centimeter (f/cc), respectively, with a corresponding 95th percentile 24-h time-weighted average (twa) asbestos concentration of 0.00008 f/cc for three applications per day in a simulated bathroom with no active ventilation. based on these results, cumulative non-occupational asbestos exposures confer a less than one in 1,000,000 risk of asbestos-related disease based on many typical usage patterns and less than 1/100,000 risk with upper-end lifetime usage patterns, using the us environmental protection agency asbestos risk model. 2. title: holton et al., characterization of asbestos exposures associated with the use of facial makeups. risk analysis, 42, 2129�2139 authors: murray m. finkelstein abstract: holton and colleagues have performed a risk assessment after measuring asbestos released from several samples of facial makeup. unfortunately, it is not possible to interpret or generalize their findings because the authors have not described the source(s) of the talc tested or the asbestos concentrations of the samples. the concentration of amphiboles varies widely between sources, and the authors are urged to divulge the locations of the ore bodies providing the talc for their samples, as well as the asbestos concentration of the samples, so that the results may be interpreted and possibly generalized. 3. title: authors� response to the letter to the editor on �characterization of asbestos exposures associated with the use of facial makeups� authors: michael holton, jennifer ellis, evan anderson abstract: we appreciate the opportunity to respond to the comments of the letter writer. the writer states in his letter to the editor that the findings in our publication are not interpretable and/or cannot be generalized due to the lack of understanding of the source mine and bulk content of the cosmetic talc used in the facial makeups. in brief, we performed an exposure simulation study using established industrial hygiene methods, planned and conducted by certified industrial hygienists (cihs), to assess asbestos exposures during the use of facial makeups that were found to contain very low levels of asbestos below the conventional detection limits of x-ray diffraction and polarized light microscopy. in total, 54 personal air samples and 72 area samples were collected from six different products. out of the 126 samples collected and analyzed, asbestos was only found in eight samples (five personal samples and three area samples). a 95th percentile 24-h time-weighted average (twa) result of 0.00008 fibers/cubic centimeter was calculated based on censored data and an assumed three applications per day. we believe these results may be of utility to understand the risk of low-level asbestos content in facial makeups regardless of source or bulk content, as described in our study, and do not find the writer's assertion of generalizability or interpretability to be compelling reasons not to apply our results, as is, for prospective purposes. 4. title: examining insensitivity to probability in evidence-based communication of relative risks: the role of affect and communication format authors: claire louise heard, tim rakow abstract: affect can influence judgments of event riskiness and use of risk-related information. two studies (ns: 85 and 100) examined the insensitivity-to-probability effect�where people discount probability information when scenarios are affect-rich�applying it to evidence-informed risk communication. we additionally investigated whether this effect is moderated by format, based on predictions from the evaluability and pattern-recognition literatures, suggesting that graphical formats may attenuate insensitivity to probability. participants completed a prior beliefs questionnaire (study 1), and risk perception booklet (both studies) that presented identical statistical information about the relative risks associated with two scenarios�one with an affect-rich outcome, the other an affect-poorer outcome. in study 1, this was presented graphically. in study 2, information was presented in one of three formats: written, tabular, or graphical. participants provided their perceptions of the risk for each scenario at a range of risk-levels. the affect-rich scenario was perceived as higher in risk, and, importantly, despite presenting identical relative risk information in both scenarios, was associated with a reduced sensitivity to probability information (both studies). these differences were predicted by participants� prior beliefs concerning the scenario events (study 1) and were larger for the single-item written format than graphical format (study 2). the findings illustrate that insensitivity to probability information can occur in evidence-informed risk communications and highlight how communication format can moderate this effect. this interplay between affect and format therefore reflects an important consideration for information designers and researchers. 5. title: information seeking and risk reduction intentions in response to environmental threat messages: the role of message processing authors: elisabeth bigsby, shelly r. hovick, naomi q. p. tan, sarah n. thomas, sam r. wilson abstract: communicating complex information about environmental health risks in a single message is impossible. thus, message designers hope that risk messages encourage people to think more about the message and risks, look for more information, and ultimately make behavior changes. the presentation of information about environmental risks using threat appeals is a common message design strategy thought to increase message engagement and influence attitudes, information seeking, and risk reduction behaviors. we compared lower threat messages, which did not include explicit statements about susceptibility and severity of a risk, to higher threat messages, which did. we combined predictions from the extended parallel process model with dual-process theories of persuasion to examine whether people respond to these types of messages differently. in an online experiment, participants (n = 892) were randomly assigned to a message condition (higher or lower threat) and topic condition (arsenic, bisphenol a, or volatile organic compounds). overall, participants exposed to higher threat messages (regardless of risk topic) reported experiencing higher levels of fear. higher levels of fear were associated with more positive thoughts about the message (in alignment with the message advocacy) and fewer negative thoughts about the message (against the message advocacy), both of which influenced message attitudes. finally, message attitudes were associated with increased information seeking and intentions to engage in risk reduction behaviors. 6. title: are some narratives better than others? : the impact of different narrative forms on adolescents� intentions to text and drive authors: courtney l. scherr, helen lillie, chelsea l. ratcliff, melinda krakow, miao liu, jakob d. jensen abstract: psychological reactance theory posits individuals seek to restore freedom when threatened. communication scholars have hypothesized persuasive messages can constitute threats to freedom. the current study engages questions about the potential for different forms of narratives in public service announcements (psas) to trigger freedom threats by examining responses to a psa campaign that utilized three forms of narrative (celebrity testimonials, peer testimonials, and accident stories) to decrease adolescent texting and driving intentions. participants (n = 214) watched anti-texting and driving narratives, and completed measures of threat to freedom, anger, negative cognition, and attitudes/intentions toward texting/driving. compared to celebrity/peer testimonial psas, accident stories triggered increased anger and, indirectly, decreased intentions to drive safely. the results also suggest the need for continued examination of the best way to model psychological reactance theory, and the value of further research explicating anger as a mechanism of message effects. 7. title: cultural orientation and risk perception: development of a scale operating in a french context authors: bruno chauvin, ianis chassang abstract: cultural theory has often been invoked to explain risk preferences, yet empirical evidence for that influence has regularly been challenged. this research addresses this issue by reassessing the role of cultural orientation in understanding risk perception through the development of an alternative assessment tool of worldviews operating in a french context. using data from two samples of french citizens (n = 192 and n = 631), study 1 conducted exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses which provided support for a three-factor scale of worldviews: hierarchy-individualism, egalitarianism, and fatalism. based on data from two other independent samples (n = 111 and n = 422), study 2 affirmed, for each worldview, its convergent validity (with its counterpart in another worldview measure), discriminant validity (from all other subscales), and predictive validity (for specific patterns of risk perception). of particular interest is that culturally diverse individuals hold divergent positions on risk (skepticism, sensibility, neutrality) depending on, and in proportion to, the (in)compatibility of the hazardous activity to their preferred worldview. implications for risk management and communication are discussed. 8. title: comparative risk: dread and unknown characteristics of the covid-19 pandemic versus covid-19 vaccines authors: jody chin sing wong, janet zheng yang abstract: this research characterizes risk perceptions of the covid-19 pandemic and the covid-19 vaccines based on the dread and unknown dimensions of the psychometric paradigm. we examine if mental risk comparisons of these two risk objects influence risk mitigation behaviors (vaccination intention; vaccine acceptance; preventive behaviors) and emotional responses among unvaccinated and vaccinated americans. a survey (n = 1532) was conducted based on a nationally representative sample of u.s. adults in may 2021. results reveal considerable impact of risk comparison, especially along the dread dimension, on the outcomes of interest. in essence, this research reveals critical insights regarding vaccine hesitancy and risk communication about vaccination. 9. title: judging pharmaceutical environmental risk by its cover? the effects of prescription medication and disease severity on environmental risk perception authors: s�lvia lu�s, rita moura, maria lu�sa lima, lucia poggio, juan ignacio aragon�s, cristina camilo abstract: recent wastewater analyses performed in care homes for the elderly showed high levels of water pollution resulting from pharmaceutical waste. the way people perceive the environmental risk of pharmaceuticals can contribute to reversing this problem, but the factors that influence risk perception remain relatively unknown. the aims of the study are two-fold. we first focused on exploring the levels of knowledge regarding environment/water pollution due to pharmaceutical residues from the groups responsible for prescribing (health professionals), handling (staff), and consuming pharmaceuticals (residents) in care homes for the elderly. second, we assessed the environmental risk perception of pharmaceuticals based on two main factors: prescription medication (nonprescribed versus prescribed) and disease severity (milder versus severe disease), accounting for their level of knowledge (deficit versus sufficiency of knowledge). the study was designed based on correlational research. data were collected in homes for the elderly located in three southwestern european countries (n = 300), using self-report surveys. current knowledge was perceived to be low and the need to know more was perceived to be high, across all groups. as hypothesized, results indicated that to assess the environmental risk, participants made use of information that was unrelated to pharmaceutical persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity (pbt). prescribed pharmaceuticals and/or medication used to treat severe diseases were perceived as being more hazardous for the environment. simple main effects analysis comparing between knowledge levels confirmed that this effect occurred mostly when participants had knowledge deficit for disease severity but not for prescription medication. these misconceptions might discourage taking an active role in reducing the impact of pharmaceutical residues in the environment. 10. title: progressing the aerospace performance factor toward nonlinear interactions authors: oldyich `tumbauer, andrej lalia abstract: evaluation of safety performance remains central to any safety and risk management. currently, there are very few support tools and methods which allow for quantitative approach in this domain. one of the successful methods available to this end is the aerospace performance factor (apf). the method is based on hierarchical clustering of taxonomy-based safety performance indicators, using simple and intelligible formula to compute the overall safety performance signal. the work presented in this study deals with one of the apf shortcomings, namely the absence of nonlinear relations among the performance indicators to capture more accurately the risk in the assessed system. it proposes an addition of new decision criteria behind the apf method as part of the application of analytical hierarchy process (ahp), namely the impact of respective performance indicator on other indicators, regardless of their hierarchical structure. this addition leads to relative changes of performance indicators significance, where those with the highest potential for nonlinear interactions among the entire set of performance indicators are emphasized and the change in their weight ultimately leads to changes in the overall apf signal. the study results indicate that the extended apf signal is refined in terms of extremes and it draws more accurate picture about the actual safety performance, eventually supporting better identification of deviations from its acceptable values. the study was experimentally carried out in the aviation with data from the european central repository (ecr) originating from united kingdom during the years 2013�2015 and verified further on data sets from finland and denmark. 11. title: forty years of risk analysis: a scientometric overview authors: floris goerlandt, jie li abstract: risk analysis was first published in 1981, established with a vision to provide a platform for inquiry into fundamental risk-related concepts and theories, and to disseminate new knowledge about methods and approaches for identifying, analyzing, evaluating, managing, and communicating risk. the journal has also contributed significantly to a scientific understanding of specific risks related to human health and safety, engineering, ecological, and social systems. published on behalf of the society for risk analysis, the journal has become a leading platform over its 40-year history. complementing recent celebratory overviews and perspectives on the evolution, achievements, and future challenges for risk analysis, this article presents a scientometric overview of the journal between 1981 and 2020. the study presents high-level insights in the journal publication trends and structure and trends in the leading countries/regions, institutions, and authors, in relation to their respective collaboration networks. furthermore, the structure and evolution of research focus issues is analyzed, and highly cited publications are identified. the findings are primarily intended to provide high-level insights, which may be useful for early career academics and risk practitioners to understand the structure and development of the research domain, and its main contributors and topics, and for experienced researchers to reflect on the achievements and future developments. 12. title: a bayesian framework for the analysis and optimal mitigation of cyber threats to cyber-physical systems authors: piotr {ebrowski, aitor couce-vieira, alessandro mancuso abstract: critical infrastructures are increasingly reliant on information and communications technology (ict) for more efficient operations, which, at the same time, exposes them to cyber threats. as the frequency and severity of cyberattacks are increasing, so are the costs of critical infrastructure security. efficient allocation of resources is thus a crucial issue for cybersecurity. a common practice in managing cyber threats is to conduct a qualitative analysis of individual attack scenarios through risk matrices, prioritizing the scenarios according to their perceived urgency and addressing them in order until all the resources available for cybersecurity are spent. apart from methodological caveats, this approach may lead to suboptimal resource allocations, given that potential synergies between different attack scenarios and among available security measures are not taken into consideration. to overcome this shortcoming, we propose a quantitative framework that features: (1) a more holistic picture of the cybersecurity landscape, represented as a bayesian network (bn) that encompasses multiple attack scenarios and thus allows for a better appreciation of vulnerabilities; and (2) a multiobjective optimization model built on top of the said bn that explicitly represents multiple dimensions of the potential impacts of successful cyberattacks. our framework adopts a broader perspective than the standard cost�benefit analysis and allows the formulation of more nuanced security objectives. we also propose a computationally efficient algorithm that identifies the set of pareto�optimal portfolios of security measures that simultaneously minimize various types of expected cyberattack impacts, while satisfying budgetary and other constraints. we illustrate our framework with a case study of electric power grids. 13. title: spatial modeling of maritime risk using machine learning authors: andrew rawson, mario brito, zoheir sabeur abstract: managing navigational safety is a key responsibility of coastal states. predicting and measuring these risks has a high complexity due to their infrequent occurrence, multitude of causes, and large study areas. as a result, maritime risk models are generally limited in scale to small regions, generalized across diverse environments, or rely on the use of expert judgement. therefore, such an approach has limited scalability and may incorrectly characterize the risk. within this article a novel method for undertaking spatial modeling of maritime risk is proposed through machine learning. this enables navigational safety to be characterized while leveraging the significant volumes of relevant data available. the method comprises two key components: aggregation of historical accident data, vessel traffic, and other exploratory features into a spatial grid; and the implementation of several classification algorithms that predicts annual accident occurrence for various vessel types. this approach is applied to characterize the risk of collisions and groundings in the united kingdom. the results vary between hazard types and vessel types but show remarkable capability at characterizing maritime risk, with accuracies and area under curve scores in excess of 90% in most implementations. furthermore, the ensemble tree-based algorithms of xgboost and random forest consistently outperformed other machine learning algorithms that were tested. the resultant potential risk maps provide decisionmakers with actionable intelligence in order to target risk mitigation measures in regions with the greatest requirement. 14. title: the cost burden of safety risk incidents on construction: a probabilistic quantification method authors: maryam alkaissy, mehrdad arashpour, ron wakefield, reza hosseini, peter gill abstract: the construction sector is vulnerable to safety risk incidents due to its dynamic nature. although numerous research efforts and technological advancements have focused on addressing workplace injuries, most of the studies perform empirical and deterministic postimpact evaluations on construction project performance. the effective modeling of the safety risk impacts on project performance provides decisionmakers with a valuable tool toward incidents prevention and proper safety risk management. therefore, this study collected australian incident records from the construction industry from 2016 onwards and conducted discrete event simulation to quantitatively measure the impact of safety risk incidents on project cost performance. moreover, this study investigated the correlation between safety risk incidents and the age of injured workers. the findings show a strong correlation between the middle-aged workforce and the severity of incidents on project cost overruns. the ex-ante, nondeterministic analysis of safety risk impacts on project performance provides insightful results that will advance safety management theory in the direction of achieving zero harm workplace environments. 15. title: evaluating mail-based security for electoral processes using attack trees authors: natalie m. scala, paul l. goethals, josh dehlinger, yeabsira mezgebe, betelhem jilcha, isabella bloomquist abstract: since the reports of russian interference in the 2016 united states general election, the security of voting processes has received increased attention from both state and federal authorities. the declaration by the us department of homeland security in january 2017 that election systems be classified as the 17th component of critical infrastructure is just the beginning of a need for more secure voting processes. more recently, the covid-19 pandemic and the 2020 us general election have placed greater emphasis specifically on mail-based voting processes for electoral systems. the objective of this research is to provide greater insight into potential threats to mail-based voting processes. upon identifying an attack tree as an initial structure for evaluation, new t !#* -/013<��ʻʪ�ʘ��zf^qc5hms#hms#5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h�u�5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#hms#hms#5�cjojqj^jaj h��5�cjojqj^jajo(hms#5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#hms#hms#5�cjojqj^jaj012��45��jk��y�� h 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