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volume 43, issue 4, april 2023
1. title: how asymptomatic transmission influences mitigation and suppression strategies during a pandemic
authors: adam t. biggs, lanny f. littlejohn
abstract: asymptomatic transmission complicates any public health strategies to combat a pandemic, which proved especially accurate in the case of covid-19. although asymptomatic cases are not unique to covid-19, the high asymptomatic case rate raised many problems for developing effective public health interventions. the current modeling effort explored how asymptomatic transmission might impact pandemic responses in four key areas: isolation procedures, changes in reproduction rate, the potential for reduced transmission from asymptomatic cases, and social adherence to public health measures. a high rate of asymptomatic cases effectively requires large-scale public health suppression and mitigation procedures given that quarantine procedures alone could not prevent an outbreak for a virus such as sars-cov-2. this problem only becomes worse without lowering the effective reproduction rate, and even assuming the potential for reduced transmission, any virus with a high degree of asymptomatic transmission will likely produce a pandemic. finally, there is a concern that asymptomatic individuals will also refuse to adhere to public health guidance. analyses indicate that, given certain assumptions, even half of the population adhering to public health guidance could reduce the peak and flatten the curve by over 90%. taken together, these analyses highlight the importance of taking asymptomatic cases into account when modeling viral spread and developing public health intervention strategies.
2. title: modeling scenarios for ending poliovirus transmission in pakistan and afghanistan
authors: dominika a. kalkowska, kamran badizadegan, kimberly m. thompson
abstract: pakistan and afghanistan pose risks for international transmission of polioviruses as the last global reservoir for wild poliovirus type 1 (wpv1) and a reservoir for type 2 circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cvdpv2s). widespread transmission of wpv1 and cvdpv2 in 2019�2020 and resumption of intensive supplemental immunization activities (sias) in 2020�2021 using oral poliovirus vaccine (opv) led to decreased transmission of wpv1 and cvdpv2 as of the end of 2021. using an established dynamic disease transmission model, we explore multiple bounding scenarios with varying intensities of sias using bivalent opv (bopv) and/or trivalent topv (topv) to characterize potential die out of transmission. this analysis demonstrates potential sets of actions that may lead to elimination of poliovirus transmission in pakistan and/or afghanistan. some modeled scenarios suggest that pakistan and afghanistan could increase population immunity to levels high enough to eliminate transmission, and if maintained, achieve wpv1 and cvdpv2 elimination as early as 2022. this requires intensive and proactive opv sias to prevent transmission, instead of surveillance followed by reactive outbreak response. the reduction of cases observed in 2021 may lead to a false sense of security that polio has already or soon will die out on its own, but relaxation of immunization activities runs the risk of lowering population immunity to, or below, the minimum die-out threshold such that transmission continues. transmission modeling may play a key role in managing expectations and supporting future modeling about the confidence of no virus circulation in anticipation of global certification decisions.
3. title: modeling undetected live type 1 wild poliovirus circulation after apparent interruption of transmission: pakistan and afghanistan
authors: dominika a. kalkowska, kamran badizadegan, kimberly m. thompson
abstract: since 2013, wild poliovirus (wpv) transmission occurred only for type 1 (wpv1). following several years of increasing reported incidence (2017�2019) and programmatic disruptions caused by covid-19 (early 2020), pakistan and afghanistan performed a large number of supplementary immunization activities (late 2020�2021). this increased intensity of immunization, following widespread transmission, substantially decreased wpv1 cases and positive environmental samples during 2021. modeling the potential for undetected circulation of wpv1 after apparent interruption can support regional and global decisions about certification of the eradication of indigenous wpv1 transmission. we apply a stochastic model to estimate the confidence about no circulation (cnc) of wpv1 in pakistan and afghanistan as a function of time since the last reported case and/or positive environmental sample. exploration of different assumptions about surveillance quality suggests a range for cnc for wpv1 as a function of time since the last positive surveillance signal, and supports the potential use of a time with no evidence of transmission of less than 3 years as sufficient to assume die out in the context of good acute flaccid paralysis (afp) surveillance. we show high expected cnc based on afp surveillance data alone, even with imperfect surveillance and some use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine masking the ability of afp surveillance to detect transmission. ensuring high quality afp and environmental surveillance may substantially shorten the time required to reach high cnc. the time required for high cnc depends on whether immunization activities maintain high population immunity and the quality of surveillance data.
4. title: quantitative analyses of misclassification rates in the hazard classification of environmental chemicals: evaluation of procedures for deriving predicted no-effect concentrations in the chemical substance control law in japan
authors: takehiko i. hayashi, ayako furuhama, hiroyuki yokomizo, hiroshi yamamoto
abstract: the quality of chemical management depends more or less on practical procedures used to assess chemicals. this study quantitatively assessed the efficacy of a derivation procedure for calculating no-effect concentrations for screening assessment of environmental hazards under the chemical substance control law in japan. we first evaluated the derivation procedure by applying a series of test ecotoxicity datasets to the procedure and calculating the resulting misclassification rates of the hazardous class of chemicals. in this study, a chemical was deemed to have been misclassified if its classification differed from its classification based on the full dataset (chronic toxicity data for three trophic levels), which was defined as the correct assignment. we also calculated the effects of additional uncertainty factors to decrease the variance (i.e., to improve the consistency) of the misclassification rates among cases with different data availability in the derivation procedure. the results showed that the derivation procedure resulted in very high rates of misclassification when only particular sets of ecotoxicity data were available (e.g., only chronic toxicity data of algae were available). our analyses also showed that the use of additional uncertainty factors improved the consistency of the misclassification rates within the derivation procedure. our study presents a broadly applicable calculation framework for quantifying error rates in assessment procedures and serves as a case study for future development and reforms of chemical assessment processes and policies, while additional analyses using more extensive ecotoxicity data with various modes of actions are needed in the future.
5. title: risk assessment of banknotes as a fomite of sars-cov-2 in cash payment transactions
authors: jack f. schijven, mark wind, daniel todt, john howes, barbora tamele, eike steinmann
abstract: the covid 19 pandemic has triggered concerns and assumptions globally about transmission of the sars-cov-2 virus via cash transactions. this paper assesses the risk of contracting covid-19 through exposure to sars-cov-2 via cash acting as a fomite in payment transactions. a quantitative microbial risk assessment was conducted for a scenario assuming an infectious person at the onset of symptoms, when virion concentrations in coughed droplets are at their highest. this person then contaminates a banknote by coughing on it and immediately hands it over to another person, who might then be infected by transferring the virions with a finger from the contaminated banknote to a facial mucous membrane. the scenario considered transfer efficiency of virions on the banknote to fingertips when droplets were still wet and after having dried up and subsequently being touched by finger printing or rubbing the object. accounting for the likelihood of the scenario to occur by considering (1) a local prevalence of 100 covid-19 cases/100,000 persons, (2) a maximum of about one-fifth of infected persons transmit high virus loads, and (3) the numbers of cash transactions/person/day, the risk of contracting covid-19 via person-to-person cash transactions was estimated to be much lower than once per 39,000 days (107 years) for a single person. in the general populace, there will be a maximum of 2.6 expected cases/100,000 persons/day. the risk for a cashier at an average point of sale was estimated to be much less than once per 430 working days (21 months). the depicted scenario is a rare event, therefore, for a single person, the risk of contracting covid-19 via person-to-person cash transactions is very low. at a point of sale, the risk to the cashier proportionally increases but it is still low.
6. title: contaminated consignment simulation to support risk-based inspection design
authors: kellyn montgomery, vaclav petras, yu takeuchi, catherine s. katsar
abstract: invasive nonnative plant pests can cause extensive environmental and economic damage and are very difficult to eradicate once established. phytosanitary inspections that aim to prevent biological invasions by limiting movement of nonnative plant pests across borders are a critical component of the biosecurity continuum. inspections can also provide valuable information about when and where plant pests are crossing national boundaries. however, only a limited portion of the massive volume of goods imported daily can be inspected, necessitating a highly targeted, risk-based strategy. furthermore, since inspections must prioritize detection and efficiency, their outcomes generally cannot be used to make inferences about risk for cargo pathways as a whole. phytosanitary agencies need better tools for quantifying pests going undetected and designing risk-based inspection strategies appropriate for changing operational conditions. in this research, we present pops (pest or pathogen spread) border, an open-source consignment inspection simulator for measuring inspection outcomes under various cargo contamination scenarios to support recommendations for inspection protocols and estimate pest slippage rates. we used the tool to estimate contamination rates of historical interception data, quantify tradeoffs in effectiveness and workload for inspection strategies, and identify vulnerabilities in sampling protocols as changes in cargo configurations and contamination occur. these use cases demonstrate how this simulation approach permits testing inspection strategies and measuring quantities that would otherwise be impossible in a field-based setting. this work represents the first steps toward a decision support tool for creating dynamic inspection protocols that respond to changes in available resources, workload, and commerce trends.
7. title: measuring feelings about choices and risks: the berlin emotional responses to risk instrument (berri)
authors: dafina petrova, edward t. cokely, agata sobkow, jakub traczyk, dunia garrido, rocio garcia-retamero
abstract: we introduce a brief instrument specifically validated for measuring positive and negative feelings about risks�the berlin emotional responses to risk instrument (berri). based on seven studies involving diverse adults from three countries (n = 2120), the berri was found to robustly estimate anticipatory affective reactions derived from subjective evaluations of positive (i.e., assured, hopeful, and relieved) and negative emotions (i.e., anxious, afraid, and worried). the brief berri outperformed a 14-item assessment, uniquely tracking costs/benefits associated with cancer screening among men and women (studies 1 and 2). predictive validity was further documented in paradigmatic risky choice studies wherein options varied over probabilities and severities across six contexts (health, social, financial, technological, ethical, and environmental; study 3). studies 4�6, conducted during the ebola epidemic and covid-19 pandemic, indicated berri responses were sensitive to subtle effects caused by emotion-related framing manipulations presented in different cultures and languages (the united states, spain, and poland). study 7 indicated berri responses remained stable for 2 weeks. although the berri can provide an estimate of overall affect, choices were generally better explained by the unique influences of positive and negative affect. overall, results suggest the novel, brief instrument can be an efficient tool for high-stakes research on decision making and risk communication.
8. title: children's disaster knowledge, risk perceptions, and preparedness: a cross-country comparison in nepal and turkey
authors: ayse yildiz, julie dickinson, jacqueline priego-hern�ndez, richard teeuw
abstract: while children are one of the groups at risk in disasters, they can also take an active part in disaster management, provided that the opportunity is given. this research examined the effect of disaster experience, disaster education, country, and city socioeconomic status on children's perceived risk and preparedness with a survey of 1335 children between 11 and 14 years old, in nepal and turkey. the survey used questionnaires and the pictorial representation of illness and self measure (prism) tool. results showed that (1) children's risk perceptions were in line with their country-specific objective risks; (2) there were differences between the countries in relation to perception of risk for all the hazards except wildfire; (3) socioeconomic status had a statistically significant effect on children's perceptions of risk and preparedness for earthquakes, wildfires, that is, children who live in wealthier places had higher perceived risk and preparedness; (4) children in both countries showed similar trends in their knowledge of the correct protective actions to take in the event of a hazard occurrence. however, there is still room to enhance children's knowledge, in terms of safety behaviors, as the children selected many incorrect protective actions. there are important implications in terms of child-centered disaster management which hopefully will make life safer and help to create more resilience to disaster in society as a whole.
9. title: individual learning as a driver of changes in community vulnerability under repeated hurricanes and changing climate
authors: chengwei zhai, allison c. reilly, seth d. guikema
abstract: the risks from singular natural hazards such as a hurricane have been extensively investigated in the literature. however, little is understood about how individual and collective responses to repeated hazards change communities and impact their preparation for future events. individual mitigation actions may drive how a community's resilience evolves under repeated hazards. in this paper, we investigate the effect that learning by homeowners can have on household mitigation decisions and on how this influences a region's vulnerability to natural hazards over time, using hurricanes along the east coast of the united states as our case study. to do this, we build an agent-based model (abm) to simulate homeowners� adaptation to repeated hurricanes and how this affects the vulnerability of the regional housing stock. through a case study, we explore how different initial beliefs about the hurricane hazard and how the memory of recent hurricanes could change a community's vulnerability both under current and potential future hurricane scenarios under climate change. in some future hurricane environments, different initial beliefs can result in large differences in the region's long-term vulnerability to hurricanes. we find that when some homeowners mitigate soon after a hurricane�when their memory of the event is the strongest�it can help to substantially decrease the vulnerability of a community.
10. title: many phish in the c$\mathcal{c}$: a coexisting-choice-criteria model of security behavior
authors: iain embrey, kim kaivanto
abstract: normative decision theory proves inadequate for modeling human responses to the social engineering campaigns of advanced persistent threat (apt) attacks. behavioral decision theory fares better, but still falls short of capturing social engineering attack vectors which operate through emotions and peripheral route persuasion. we introduce a generalized decision theory, under which any decision will be made according to one of multiple coexisting choice criteria. we denote the set of possible choice criteria by c$\mathcal {c}$. thus, the proposed model reduces to conventional expected utility theory when |ceu|=1$|\mathcal {c}_{\text{eu}}|=1$, while dual process (thinking fast vs. thinking slow) decision making corresponds to a model with |cdp|=2$|\mathcal {c}_{\text{dp}}|=2$. we consider a more general case with |c|e"2$|\mathcal {c}|\ge 2$, which necessitates careful consideration of how, for a particular choice task instance, one criterion comes to prevail over others. we operationalize this with a probability distribution that is conditional upon traits of the decisionmaker as well as upon the context and the framing of choice options. whereas existing signal detection theory (sdt) models of phishing detection commingle the different peripheral route persuasion pathways, in the present descriptive generalization the different pathways are explicitly identified and represented. a number of implications follow immediately from this formulation, ranging from the conditional nature of security breach risk to delineation of the prerequisites for valid tests of security training. moreover, the model explains the "stepping stone" penetration pattern of apt attacks, which has confounded modeling approaches based on normative rationality.
11. title: physical cyber human framework-based resilience evaluation toward urban power system: case study from china
authors: fengjuan wang, jinyue yan, jiuping xu, zhouxingyu yan, dan chen
abstract: because the increased frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events have significantly challenged power systems, there has been an increased interest in resilient power systems. this article establishes a multicriteria resilience evaluation framework for urban power systems from a physical�cyber�human system perspective, in which the two principal elements responsible for power system function degradation are described, the three major domains comprising urban power systems are explained, four core capacities that positively contribute to power system resilience are proposed, and 15 (11 objective and four subjective) power system resilience evaluation indicators are identified. fuzzy hesitant judgment and a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (topsis) aggregation method are employed to minimize the expert divergence and maximize the group consensus. a validation method is designed and a comparison with commonly applied performance-based and attributes-based evaluation methods is conducted. the applicability of the evaluation framework is verified using data from four chinese municipalities: shanghai, beijing, chongqing, and tianjin. it was found that shanghai's resilience was the best, and chongqing's physical resistance disadvantages would result in the greatest difficulties in coping with extreme event disturbances. physical, cyber, and human domain resilience enhancement strategies are given for different cities separately. this study provides a practical tool to evaluate, compare, and enhance power system resilience for governments and public utilities.
12. title: enterprise risk management for automation in correctional facilities with pandemic and other stressors
authors: daniel j. andrews, timothy l. eddy, kelsey s. hollenback, shravan sreekumar, davis c. loose, cody a. pennetti, thomas l. polmateer, james c. haug, lessie i. oliver-clark, joi y. williams, mark c. manasco, steven smith, james h. lambert
abstract: real-time tracking of tool and equipment inventories is a critical function of many organizations and sectors. for prisons and correctional facilities, tracking and monitoring of assets such as cookware, hardware, keys, janitorial equipment, vocational/technical specialty tools, etc., is essential for safety, security, trust, efficiency, education, etc. the performance of automated systems for this purpose can be diminished by a variety of emergent and future sociotechnical factors alone and in combination. this article introduces a methodology for contractor evaluation and selection in acquisition of innovative asset management systems, with an emphasis on evolving system requirements under uncertainty. the methodology features a scenario-based preferences analysis of emergent and future conditions that are disruptive to the performance of the asset-control system. the conditions are across technologies, operating environments, regulations, workforce behaviors, offender behaviors, prices and markets, organizations, cyber threats, etc. the methodology addresses the influence and interaction of the conditions to disrupt system priorities. examples include: (i) infectious disease disrupting priorities among requirements and (ii) radio-frequency identification (rfid) and wireless-technology innovations disrupting priorities among stakeholders. the combinations of conditions that most and least matter for the system acquisition are characterized. the methodology constitutes a risk register for monitoring sources of risk to project performance, schedule, and cost throughout the system lifecycle. the results will be of interest to both practitioners and scholars engaged in systems acquisition as the pandemic interacts with other factors to affect risk, uncertainty, and resilience of organizational missions and operations.
13. title: risk�risk governance in a low-carbon future: exploring institutional, technological, and behavioral tradeoffs in climate geoengineering pathways
authors: benjamin k. sovacool, chad m. baum, sean low
abstract: deliberations are underway to utilize increasingly radical technological options to help address climate change and stabilize the climatic system. collectively, these options are often referred to as �climate geoengineering.� deployment of such options, however, can create wicked tradeoffs in governance and require adaptive forms of risk management. in this study, we utilize a large and novel set of qualitative expert interview data to more deeply and systematically explore the types of risk�risk tradeoffs that may emerge from the use of 20 different climate geoengineering options, 10 that focus on carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas removal, and 10 that focus on solar radiation management and reflecting sunlight. we specifically consider: what risks does the deployment of these options entail? what types of tradeoffs may emerge through their deployment? we apply a framework that clusters risk�risk tradeoffs into institutional and governance, technological and environmental, and behavioral and temporal dimensions. in doing so, we offer a more complete inventory of risk�risk tradeoffs than those currently available within the respective risk-assessment, energy-systems, and climate-change literatures, and we also point the way toward future research gaps concerning policy, deployment, and risk management.
14. title: mycotoxins were not associated with environme
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authors: chen chen, crystal l. patil, estomih r. mduma, john d. groopman, ronald t. riley, felicia wu
abstract: enteropathy is a pathophysiological condition characterized by decreased intestinal barrier function and absorption. past studies have hypothesized that mycotoxins might impair children's growth by causing intestinal enteropathy, including interactions between mycotoxins and pathogens. we investigated the association of two mycotoxins, aflatoxin b1 (afb1) and fumonisin b1 (fb1), independently and in conjunction with microbial pathogens, with fecal biomarkers of environmental enteropathy in children. as part of a larger mal-ed study, 196 children were recruited in haydom, tanzania, and followed for the first 36 months of life. the gut inflammation biomarkers myeloperoxidase (mpo), neopterin (neo), and alpha-1-antitrypsin (a1at) were analyzed in stool samples at 24 months; with mean concentrations 5332.5 ng/l mpo, 807.2 nmol/l neo, and 0.18 mg/g a1at. forty-eight children were measured for afb1-lys, with a mean of 5.30 (95% ci: 3.93-6.66) pg/mg albumin; and 87 were measured for fb1, with a mean of 1.25 (95% ci: 0.72�1.76) ng/ml urine. although the pathogens adenovirus and campylobacter were associated with a1at (p = 0.049) and neo (p = 0.004), respectively, no association was observed between aflatoxin (mpo, p = 0.30; neo, p = 0.08; a1at, p = 0.24) or fumonisin (mpo, p = 0.38; neo, p = 0.65; a1at, p = 0.20) exposure and any gut inflammation biomarkers; nor were interactive effects found between mycotoxins and pathogens in contributing to intestinal enteropathy in this cohort. although further studies are needed to confirm these results, it is possible that mycotoxins contribute to child growth impairment via mechanisms other than disrupting children's intestinal function.
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